Sunday, February 22, 2015

OSCAR NIGHT 2015

Academy-Awards-645x370

Hello, my friends, and welcome to my 10th annual LIVE, moment-by-moment, stream-of-consciousness Oscar commentary! Yes, I’ve now been doing this shit for a full decade. Nowadays, everyone and their Great Aunt Tilly live-blogs and live-tweets every damn thing, but I’ve been doing this since before Twitter was even a glimmer in its daddy’s eye! My first live-blog was on MySpace, for God’s sake -- I’m one of the OGs, baby! Thank you for stopping by and I do hope you will stay a spell (or, even better, ALL NIGHT LONG!).

It’s going to be fun. I have seen every nominated film in every category except for two (Best Documentary contender THE SALT OF THE EARTH and Original Song nominee GLEN CAMPBELL: I’LL BE ME), so my guesses/rants/raves will be highly educated (haha). The biggest story of the night, of course, is the battle between BOYHOOD and BIRDMAN for Best Picture. Linklater’s 12-year opus was the favorite for the longest time, but Inarritu’s rollicking satire has caught fire lately. It could go either way. On a personal level, BOYHOOD was my #1 movie of 2014 so I am very much in its corner -- in fact, it would mark the first time that my #1 movie of the year has won Best Picture since THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF KING in 2004. Eleven years ago! I am priming myself for an epic celebration if that happens... or conflicted disappointment if it doesn’t (conflicted because I actually really like BIRDMAN, too -- it was also in my Top 10 of last year).

Truth be told, I like most of the nominees and I’m not sure we’ll see any real major upsets. Linklater vs. Inarritu for Best Director is another close race that could go either way. All signs point to Eddie Redmayne snagging Best Actor for his fantastic portrayal of Stephen Hawking -- but a Michael Keaton win would be particularly sweet. Julianne Moore is poised to win her long-overdue first Oscar, while J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette are veritable locks in the supporting categories. I hope to see the aesthetically-pleasing THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL pick up a few design awards -- but I’ll be ecstatic if it also wins for Original Screenplay and Score. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2 is the favorite for Animated Feature, but could a little Irish gem called SONG OF THE SEA slay the beast -- or perhaps Disney and BIG HERO 6 will continue to ride the wave of its new Golden Age? Who will win between Martin Luther King, Jr. (“Glory”) and Legos (“Everything is Awesome”) in a Best Original Song battle for the ages? Is IDA necessarily a lock for Foreign Film thanks to its additional Cinematography nod, or can the gleefully deranged WILD TALES make a late surge? Will Steve Carell’s creepy fake nose win out over Dave Batista’s body paint for Best Makeup? Speaking of which, can the GUARDIANS conquer Visual Effects or will the night belong to Caesar and the APES? I’d be very pleased if A SINGLE LIFE, a tiny two-minute time-travel tale won Best Animated Short -- but which Documentary Short, all of which were utterly bleak, will take the gold (I’m rooting for JOANNA)? On the flip side, one thing that would really piss me off and cause the night to take a dark turn is if the vastly-overblown AMERICAN SNIPER rides its wave of box office success and flag-waving to some major wins. Finally, there’s little doubt that Neil Patrick Harris will be an awesome host, but just HOW awesome (or, dare I say it, LEGENDARY) will he be? And how much will we cry during what should be one of the longest & most devastating In Memoriam segments in recent memory (I’m legitimately scared to see it)? And perhaps most importantly, what will Lupita be wearing? So much intrigue!

My LIVE running commentary will begin with Red Carpet Madness at 7 p.m. EST sharp, followed by the 87th Academy Awards at 8:30. I’ll be updating this blog every few minutes with my play-by-play, observations, predictions, reactions, rants and musings. Please do bookmark this page and check back often... or keep your browser right here and click “refresh” constantly & obsessively. See you later! And by the way, please forget that I used the term “OG” before (to think, I haven’t even started drinking yet)....

THE RED CARPET

7:00 – Aaaaaaand we’re off! I’m watching the pre-show on ABC because I don’t have cable and thus am without E! for the first time in forever. I already miss Giuliana Rancic and Kelly Osborne and Ryan Seacrest... just kidding! Then again, I have no idea who the ABC people are, so I can’t even properly make fun of them -- it’s hard to say which experience is preferable.

7:04 – Oh, Michael Strahan is one of the ABC Red Carpet hosts. I know who he is. No idea about the other people but they all seem kind of interchangeable. And the first celebs we see are John Legend and Common. “Glory” is a good song and will probably win gold tonight – but don’t count out THE LEGO MOVIE!

7:05 – Michael Keaton is here and seems a little manic, which reminds me of that one scene in BATMAN -- “You wanna get nuts?? Let’s get nuts!” God, I hope he wins.

7:07 – On Twitter, everyone is raving about Lupita and Zoe Saldana, which means I’m guessing they both appeared on the E! Red Carpet show. Dammit! Come on, ABC, get your shit together!

7:10 – Commercial break. Uhhhh, this live blog is off to a boring start, but it’s not my fault! Damn you, ABC!

7:11 – Oh, here we go. Rosamund Pike is here and she looks mighty nice in red with a healthy shot of leg. GONE GIRL is vastly underrepresented at the Oscars, and Rosamund doesn’t really stand a chance against the awesome (and deserved) might of Julianne Moore. But if there is going to be a shocking upset, I hope it’s her!

7:13 – Eddie Redmayne is very charming and was fantastic in THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING, which, on the surface, is a very Oscar-baity film but manages to transcend that stigma. If he wins Best Actor as expected, I will not be mad. But still rooting hard for Keaton. Also would’ve preferred Redmayne to hit the Red Carpet dressed up as his character from JUPITER ASCENDING.

7:16 – For the love of God, ABC, SHOW ME LUPITA. I’VE GOT A FEVER. AND THE ONLY PRESCRIPTION. IS MORE LUPITA.

7:19 – The ABC Red Carpet show is really pissing me off. They are terrible! I just sat through a retrospective of movie costumes, and now the nameless talking heads and talking amongst themselves about God knows what. SHOW ME THE DAMN CELEBRITIES. And now another commercial break?! Are you kidding me?!

7:20 – In happier news, my Indian food has arrived. And I’m just about ready for my second gin & tonic.

7:23 – Felicity Jones is pretty good. And pretty. Not sure her performance in THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING was necessarily Oscar-worthy but now that she is appearing on my TV screen, I have no complaints.

7:25 – Sigh, now ABC is plugging Jimmy Kimmel’s post-Oscar special and it is taking FOREVER. This is ridiculous and unfunny.

7:26 – I’ve never been happier to see Kevin Hart because at least he’s not one of these nameless ABC talking heads. Also, Kevin Hart’s popularity gives hope to funny short guys like me! (Well, short guys, anyway.)

7:31 – FINALLY, ABC shows a brief glimpse of Lupita... and just like that, she’s gone. She looked amazing, though. And speaking of amazing, here’s Julianne Moore! She makes everything better with her mere presence, and this ABC red carpet debacle is no exception. She is destined to win the first Oscar of her career tonight, which is crazy because she should have like 12 of them already.

7:34 – Melanie Griffith thinks it would be strange to watch her daughter Dakota in FIFTY SHADES OF GREY. That’s probably true... but then again, Melanie Griffith is kind of strange nowadays. Dakota was actually very good in that movie and she looks nice on the red carpet, wearing bright red and exactly ZERO shades of grey. (I’ll be here all night!)

7:36 – Marion Cotillard is a perfect specimen and she is on my TV screen. Seriously, she is a goddess. And she’s also one of the finest actresses on the planet. She will not win this year despite an amazing performance in TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT, but in another year, she might have had a good shot.

7:41 – Chris Pratt and Anna Farris! Best couple ever. Chris Pratt is about to become the biggest movie star on the planet and it’s gonna be awesome. “Well, we have a little toddler at home... so we’re not going home,” Anna Farris says. “Yeah, we’re not going home for a week!” Pratt adds. Love them.

7:42 – Benedict Cumberbatch says that it was “a bit squishy on the carpet” with the rain and all, and Cumberbitches everywhere swoon in unison. Still think he would make one hell of a Grand Admiral Thrawn.

7:46 – ABC briefly showed Lupita again and then segued to some segment about a young filmmakers program. Dammit, ABC! This is the Oscars! Aspiring young filmmakers and the future of movies have no business here!

7:49 – Ooh, ooh, I caught a brief glimpse of Cate Blanchett as ABC cut to yet another commercial break. (Sorry for all the bitching, but this is seriously the worst red carpet show ever.) Anyway, Cate looked great, naturally.

7:52 – Reese Witherspoon is here and looks adorable as always. Also, is Reese super-tiny? Or is this interviewer lady a half-giant? Anyway, Reese was fantastic in WILD and I was happy to see her snag a nomination. In another year, she might’ve been my pick! But not this year because Julianne Moore must (and will) win.

7:55 – Jennifer Lopez looks lovely and has arguably the greatest cleavage of all time, but I hope that somebody asks her how she’s enjoying her first-edition Iliad.

7:57 – I just saw Scarlett Johansson looking amazing in green with, I presume, electro-pop girl band hair, and now, finally, an interview with Lupita! Holy shit, what is her dress, entirely made out of pearls? She is a goddess of unrivaled proportions and needs to be worshipped accordingly. Added bonus: she is going to be in STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS!

8:00 – Okay, well, I’m gonna end this portion of the blog on a high note (I mean, there is none higher than a Scarlett-Lupita one-two punch). Also, I need to eat this Indian food and fix myself another G&T. I’ll be back at 8:30 for the big show! Stay tuned -- we’ve only just begun!

THE 87th ACADEMY AWARDS

8:30 – Aaaaaaand it’s time for the Oscars! Here’s our host, NEIL PATRICK HARRIS! I’m hoping his performance falls somewhere between Awesome and LEGEN – wait for it – and I hope you’re not lactose intolerant because the second half of that word is DARY! “Tonight we honor Hollywood’s best and whitest – I mean brightest!” OOPS!

8:31 – Musical sequence! “No one’s drunk and bitter yet because no one has lost!” We’ll get there soon enough. He’s tracing the history of movies from Marilyn Monroe to Sharon Stone and the tension between Ben & Matt! Hehe. NPH is now making special guest appearances in such classics as THE WIZARD OF OZ and STAR WARS and more… and now here’s Anna Kendrick, also singing about moving pictures! And now Jack Black from the crowd, singing a version of the Witch’s bean song from INTO THE WOODS and now he’s rocking out TENACIOUS D-style!

8:35 – NPH stops Jack Black before things get out hand. He and Anna continue singing and the curtain rises and something crazy is going on behind them. I see Stormtroopers and brides and knights and not sure what else? This is both the greatest and wackiest Oscars opening number in a while and it’s awesome! “That whole thing, completely improvised,” he quips.

8:37 – Hmm, NPH continues with kind of a lame Oprah joke. Distant second to David Letterman’s Oprah/Uma joke once upon a time. And, hey, it’s time for an award already!

8:38 – The exquisite Lupita Nyong’o comes out to present the first award of the night for Best Supporting Actor. Aw, man, first Robin Williams mention of the night (tear). Not much excitement in this category because it’s all about JK Simmons. Robert Duvall was good, as he always is, in THE JUDGE, but the movie was really, really bad. Richard Linklater brings out the best in Ethan Hawke and BOYHOOD was no exception – plus he’s just cool. Edward Norton gave one of his best performances ever in BIRDMAN, as did Mark Ruffalo in the otherwise meh FOXCATCHER. But JK Simmons was an absolutely powerhouse presence in WHIPLASH and will not lose. “And the Actor goes to, er, the Oscar goes to...” aw, Lupita, adorable even when she botches her line... JK SIMMONS! And a standing ovation already! Fantastic and well-deserved. This is a guy who has been really good for a long time. Now get him back into the Spider-Man / Marvel universe as J. Jonah Jameson!

8:44 – “He won an Oscar, bum ba dum bum bum bum bum!” NPH quips along to the Farmers Insurance jingle. Hehe. And now a bit about NPH’s Oscar predictions that are locked in a briefcase on stage. Octavia Spencer is recruited to keep her eye on the case all night long! No snacks! Okay, this might get funny as the night goes on?

8:46 – Liam Neeson strides out to the theme of SCHINDLER’S LIST to introduce some of the Best Picture nominees. First, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL, my #2 movie of last year and an all-around joyous, exhilarating movie-watching experience. It has a slew of noms tonight and I would not mind if it won most of them. And on the other side of the coin, vastly overrated AMERICAN SNIPER. God forbid it wins anything major.

8:48 – Dakota Johnson of FIFTY SHADES OF GREY takes the stage (wearing clothes, booo), and it looks like she is introducing Maroon 5 to perform “Lost Stars,” the nominated Original Song from BEGIN AGAIN. I liked that movie because it was written & directed by John Carney of ONCE fame. But this is not the song I would’ve chosen to nominate. Why not the song that Keira Knightley sings that entrances Mark Ruffalo and sets the stage for the whole movie? Oh well. It also doesn’t help that Adam Levine kinda sucks.

8:56 – “Welcome back to the Oscars, or as I like to call them, the Dependent Spirit Awards!” Hehe. NPH is doing well, though it’s going to be hard to top that opening musical number. And now, here’s J-Lo’s cleavage and Chris Pine to present the award for Best Costume Design. GRAND BUDAPEST looks amazing and already iconic, but I love the ‘70s aesthetic of INHERENT VICE. INTO THE WOODS and MALEFICENT have the fairy tale edge while MR. TURNER has the period piece edge, and the Oscar goes to THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL! Wow, I did not expect that! Could this signal a possible sweep for one of Wes Anderson’s best ever?

9:00 – “This next presenter is so lovely, you can eat her up WITH HER SPOON.” Nailed it, NPH. Cutie Reese comes out to present the award for Best Makeup. Hard to bet against Steve Carell’s gargantuan schnozz in FOXCATCHER, but I’m rooting for GUARDIANS here... or maybe BUDAPEST will grab another one? AND IT DOES. The Oscar goes to THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL! This is a shocker but not in a bad way! The more we get to hear that music, the happier I’ll be all night long (but maybe throw in some of that BOYHOOD music, too).

9:03 – Channing Tatum is here to talk more about the young filmmaker thing that took up way too much time during the ABC pre-show. Aw, look at them. They’re adorable with their ideals and dreams! Soon Hollywood will crush them.

9:09 – Using movie magic, Nicole Kidman will be playing Chiwetel Ejiofor tonight and Ejiofor will be playing Kidman. I dunno, NPH, who wrote these jokes? They are very hit-or-miss. Also not sure how I feel about the size of Nicole Kidman’s head – it looks like an orange on a toothpick. Ooh, Best Foreign Film, a really stacked category. IDA is the odds-on favorite, LEVIATHAN is a great Russian satire, TANGERINES, TIMBUKTU, both great, and my pick is the uproarious Argentinian anthology WILD TALES. And the Oscar goes to IDA. No surprise there and no disappointment – it is an incredible film. All of these nominees are worth checking out. Heh, ouch, the IDA guy is the first to get played off the stage. But he refuses to stop! He completely ignored the play-off music! This could set a dangerous precedent tonight, but you go, Polish dude!

9:12 – The great Shirley MacLaine comes out to introduce three more Best Picture nominees. First it’s BOYHOOD, the music of which fills me with instant feels. What a brilliant, moving piece of work – it is life-affirming as both a movie lover and a human being. Next up is THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING, a wonderful biopic that transcends your typical Oscar bait on pretty much every level. And now BIRDMAN, an expertly-crafted, brilliantly-acted slice of cinematic exhilaration. Three great movies, but you guys know where my heart is! #TeamBoyhood

9:16 – NPH is walking around talking to seat fillers! First Heidi, then Laura, and now Steve, who looks suspiciously like Steve Carell! It’s his first time here and he’s excited to see Ed Norton, who’s right over there! Heh. And now, one of nature’s finest achievements, Marion Cotillard, takes the stage. She’s introducing Tegan & Sara and The Lonely Island, who are performing “Everything is Awesome!” This is incredible! Oprah is thrilled that she got a Lego Oscar! The stage is candy colored and awesome! Batman is rocking out! Everything IS awesome! Please let this song win.

9:24 – I was in the other room making another G&T so I missed NPH’s joke but I did hear the SUPERMAN theme when the show came back from commercial. Jason Bateman and Kerry Washington are presenting Best Live Action Short Film! I’m rooting for the hilarious BOOGALOO AND GRAHAM here but I think AYA will win... and the Oscar goes to THE PHONE CALL. Oh, yeah, I guess that is more up Oscar’s alley. None of these nominees were particularly memorable. NEXT!

9:28 – Best Documentary Short is next. All five of these noms are BLEAK, BLEAK, BLEAK, BLEAK, BLEAK. And the Oscar goes to CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1, which is what I expected. It’s about people who work at a crisis hotline for suicidal veterans... and somehow it is the LEAST bleak of the bunch. I was “rooting” for JOANNA, a dying mother’s video farewell to her young son. Now excuse me as I pound this drink.

9:30 – “Takes a lot of balls to wear a dress like that,” NPH says about the crazy poof-ball dress that the Doc Short lady was wearing. (You had to be there.) And here’s the Viola Davis to talk about the Governor’s Awards. Miyazaki got an Honorary Award, as did Jean-Claude Carriere, and Harry Belafonte got the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award. Congratulations, all. (P.S. Miyazaki, please don’t retire.)

9:33 – NPH is praising the glory of the British accent and focuses on David Oyelowo. “Oh, sure, now you like him!” NPH quips when the crowd applauds. Oyelowo reads something in his British accent and the whole bit kind of falls flat. NPH needs to start singing & dancing again, stat. And now here’s Gwyneth Paltrow with a flowery shoulder to introduce Tim McGraw, who is singing “I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” Glen Campbell’s nominated song, which was also one of the two nominated films I did not manage to see. Why couldn’t I find it anywhere?! Grrr. The song is okay, I guess.

9:41 – NPH is nowhere to be found as the show comes back from commercial and now we’re roaming the halls, and, oh, he has taken off his clothes, BIRDMAN style, but also possibly a desperation tactic to make up for all the lame jokes. He passes Miles Teller who’s wailing on the drums, and whoa, now he’s onstage in his tighty-whiteys. “Acting is a noble profession.” Hehe.

9:43 – Miles Teller and Margot Robbie’s full lips and plunging neckline are here to talk about the scientific & technical awards. Was Margot the requisite hottie that presents the awards to all the nyerds? Heh, yup, she was. And a random crowd shot of Lupita as we return to the live room – more of that please!

9:45 – Sienna Miller and Chris Evans come out to present the award for Best Sound Mixing, which should go to WHIPLASH but I think will go to AMERICAN SNIPER because ‘Murrica. But the Oscar goes to WHIPLASH! WOW! Make music not war! That final scene alone probably sealed the win. Awesome.

9:48 – Sound Editing now. I’m rooting for THE HOBBIT just for the heck of it, but AMERICAN SNIPER wins this one, which I expected, and can’t really argue with, because the sound WAS pretty intense. Still, hopefully this is the only award that movie wins.

9:50 – NPH calls himself a changed man after changing his clothes. Wow. I realize he probably didn’t write these jokes, but they are not doing him ANY favors. Jared Leto comes out to present Best Supporting Actress! Excellent Streep joke from the former Jordan Cattalano-turned-Jesus. Patricia Arquette was fantastic in BOYHOOD and is the odds-on favorite. I really loved Laura Dern in WILD, though – so happy that she got nominated. I’ve had an unreasonable crush on Keira Knightley for a long, long time and she was fine in THE IMITATION GAME. Emma Stone took her game to a whole new level in BIRDMAN and she is so gorgeous, it’s almost alien-like – haha, and she’s holding a Lego Oscar in the crowd. And finally, Meryl Streep, who fucking ruled in INTO THE WOODS – who knew she could sing like that?! Plus that soundtrack has been stuck in my head two the past two months. And the Oscar goes to… PATRICIA ARQUETTE! And we get to hear the feel-inducing strains of “Hero” for the first time tonight!

9:53 – Hehe, I think Patricia got bleeped as she took the mix and now she is emotional as she rattles off her speech. She is so deserving and this is a very happy moment! Oh snap, she’s going off with a speech about wage equality! And Meryl Streep stands up and points emphatically and gives her props! That was pretty epic. Go Patricia!

9:59 – Oh, I almost forgot about NPH’s briefcase bit. Octavia still has her eye on it. But Robert Duvall does not give a fuck. And now Josh Hutcherson introduces Rita Ora singing the nominated song from BEYOND THE LIGHTS, which was another movie that could’ve been a cheesy romance but transcended the material with great performances.

10:02 – Huh, NPH sort of brushes off Rita Ora’s performance with a flippant, “Well done,” and then introduces Ansel Engort and Chloe Grace-Moretz who are presenting the award for Visual Effects. Looks of good geekery in this category this year… I mean, even more than usual. THE WINTER SOLDIER. APES. GUARDIANS. INTERSTELLAR. DAYS OF FUTURE PAST. All good stuff! And the Oscar goes to INTERSTELLAR! How about that? I was rooting for GUARDIANS but thought APES would win. Surprising but not disappointing – INTERSTELLAR was a great film in its own right.

10:06 – Kevin Hart and Anna Kendrick come out to the DIRTY DANCING theme? Okay. “Best Animated Short… animated and short…” Anna says as she glances at Kevin. Heh. Really strong category here. I’m rooting for the two-minute gem A SINGLE LIFE but would have no problem with Disney’s FEAST taking home the gold… and the Oscar goes to FEAST! The new Golden Age of Disney continues!

10:09 – Damn, NPH’s jokes are actually kind of on the mean side tonight. Not a nice one about THE LEGO MOVIE’s Best Animated Feature snub. Zoe Saldana (who looks absolutely incredible) and The Rock step out to present the award. I’m rooting for the wonderful Irish gem SONG OF THE SEA but I think the Oscar will go to HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2. And the Oscar goes to BIG HERO 6?!?! WOWOWOW. This is the first full-fledged legit shocker of the night, but again, not in a bad way. BIG HERO 6 may not be an instant classic like FROZEN but it is fun and lovable as hell. HAIL DISNEY.

10:17 – The President of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences comes out to a rousing ovation! Just kidding. Everyone is taking a bathroom break now. Even I’m gonna run into the kitchen and pop some corn. Be right back!

10:20 – There better be a good payoff to this running briefcase joke or it could signal the end of our ongoing love-fest with Neil Patrick Harris. Now here’s Felicity Jones and Chris Pratt to present Best Production Design. I’m excited for this award because I’m fairly certain BUDAPEST is going to win. Wes Anderson movies are all about production design and this one took it to another level of aesthetic pleasure. But INTO THE WOODS looked mighty nice, too… and the Oscar goes to THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL! Yes! “They’ve won so many tonight,” you can hear Felicity say into the still-live mic. And they might just win more! Awesome.

10:23 – Idris Elba and Jessica Chastain would make one hell of a Hollywood power couple. They are presenting the award for Cinematography, which I am fairly certain will go to BIRDMAN because of all those crazy long takes. But BUDAPEST did some nice things, too, and seems to be riding a wave. OR maybe it’s finally time for Roger Deakins to get his first-ever Oscar in 12 tries? Nope – the Oscar goes to BIRDMAN! This guy actually won last year for GRAVITY, too – he’s pretty good with that there camera thingie. Is this the first of more BIRDMAN gold to come? Maybe… but hopefully not too many!

10:30 – Meryl Streep comes out to a tune from INTO THE WOODS, and oh shit, I think she’s introducing the In Memoriam segment. Yes. This is going to be rough. “We will miss them with the same sadness with which we miss an old friend.” And here we go. Mickey Rooney. James Garner. Maya Angelou. This is very slow and somber, with what looks like photo-art of each person. James Rebhorn. The ever-lovely Anita Ekberg. Richard Attenborough… “Welcome to Jurassic Park”… okay, now I’m legit getting choked up. Ruby Dee. ROBIN WILLIAMS and here come the tears. Rod Taylor. Lauren freakin’ Bacall. Eli Wallach. God, this list is long, as I knew it would be. Gabriel Garcia Marquez? I don’t even remember that, but shit. Bob Hoskins! Mike Nichols, jesus. Wait, and now the stage is opening and something is happening. Jennifer Hudson steps out to sing a song for the dearly departed. No Philip Seymour Hoffman, but I guess he died before last year’s awards and they honored him then? I forget. Also, no Joan Rivers? Well, in any event, that was rough indeed. F this world.

10:42 – My good friend Jay just pointed out via text that they also snubbed RICHARD KIEL!? Hey Academy, YOUR BALL STRUCK MY FOOT. And now here’s Benedict Cumberbatch and Naomi Watts, who looks like the prettiest brick wall ever. Film Editing is next, which could be a key award. AMERICAN SNIPER, no. BOYHOOD, yes! Twelve years in the making! BUDAPEST, maybe. IMITATION GAME and WHIPLASH… and the Oscar goes to WHIPLASH. Well, that’s very interesting indeed as we inch closer to the big prize.

10:46 – Terrence Howard is here to introduce more Best Picture nominees. And, uh, he gets strangely emotional before talking about THE IMITATION GAME? And then there were some weird noises. I think there was a teleprompter problem for a second there and he thought he was going to be talking about SELMA. Anyway, WHIPLASH first, which is suddenly gaining some momentum. IMITATION GAME is an okay movie about an extraordinary life but not really a worthy Oscar nominee. And then there’s SELMA, which just an incredible film and really deserved a bigger presence here tonight.

10:49 – I think NPH just made another mean-spirited joke about Jennifer Aniston and David Oyelowo’s snubs? Not sure. They’re presenting Best Documentary Feature. This is CITIZENFOUR’s award to lose. The others are pretty good, though, but the Oscar goes to CITIZENFOUR, the Edward Snowden flick. Powerful, intense stuff. However, it is worth noting that LAST DAYS IN VIETNAM was produced by a guy named Keven McAlester. Keep the change, ya filthy animal!

10:53 – “FALLING SLOWLY” AS THE SHOW GOES TO COMMERCIAL. SWOON.

10:58 – Octavia has given up her briefcase-watching duties to introduce John Legend and Common, who, of course, are performing “Glory” from SELMA. Octavia also talked about the time the Oscar telecast was cancelled because it was four days after MLK’s assassination, and you gotta figure it’d be kind of awkward to give the Best Song award to THE LEGO MOVIE now. “Glory” is a great song, though, and this set, which is designed to look like the Selma march, is incredible. One of the best moments of the show happening right now.

11:04 – Idina Menzel comes out and introduces her very dear friend, and makes up a funny name – Glom something – for John Travolta, who of course memorably mangled her name last year! Haha. And then he gets creepy and touches her face. Ew. They’re presenting Best Song, which pretty much HAS to go to SELMA now. And the Oscar goes to “Glory” from SELMA! Great song. Amazing movie – too bad it won’t likely win any more Oscars. Or will it? The live crowd is giving this movie a LOT of love. Is it possible that it could steal the big prize away from BOYHOOD, BIRDMAN and even WHIPLASH!? Nice speech by Common and John Legend, too. #SelmaIsNow

11:12 – Neil Patrick Harris looks sadly like a deer caught in the headlights at this point, and now here’s Scarlett Johansson, who looks off the charts amazing. Sounds like she’s introducing a SOUND OF MUSIC tribute for its 50th anniversary. A montage of clips from the movie for starters. I do enjoy a good montage. And now Lady Gaga takes the stage to sing a live medley. Is this really happening at 11:16 at night? There are 7 awards to go! This is going to be a really, really long night. That being said, Gaga does sound pretty good, and she got rid of those weird red rubber gloves from earlier in the evening.

11:20 – Gaga sort of kicked ass with that medley, unnecessary though it was. And hey, here’s Julie Andrews! “Dear Lady Gaga, thank you for that wonderful tribute.” Who ever would’ve guessed that we’d hear Mary Poppins say those words? She’s talking about the importance of music in film and even mentions Star Wars! Julie Andrews just said the words “Lady Gaga” and “Star Wars” in this segment. Mind blown. Oh, she’s also presenting the award for Best Score! I’m rooting hard for BUDAPEST here because it is a joyous romp, but I think THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING is the fronturnner. Other good stuff here, too. And the Oscar goes to… ALEXANDRE DESPLAT FOR THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL!!! I JUST SCREAMED “YES!” IN MY LIVING ROOM! My favorite win of the night so far! I’ve been listening to this soundtrack non-stop for months! Didn’t think it would actually win! So awesome!

11:29 – Eddie Murphy, whose career as a funny comedian is completely, officially dead following his dismal SNL40 appearance, is here to boringly present Best Original Screenplay. I’m hoping for another BUDAPEST win here – it would be Wes Anderson’s first! – but BIRDMAN has a distinct shot. This is a rare case where I’m not sure BOYHOOD should win due to the nature of the film, but of course, if it did, I’d be thrilled. And the Oscar goes to.. BIRDMAN. Fuck. Great movie and screenplay, but not a good sign of things to come tonight.

11:33 – Oprah comes out to present Best Adapted Screenplay. AMERICAN SNIPER, no. IMITATION GAME, no. INHERENT VICE, yes please. THEORY OF EVERYTHING, maybe. WHIPLASH, pretty sure it will win… but no, the Oscar goes to THE IMITATION GAME?! Well, now I don’t know what to think. “Thank you very much to the Academy and to… Oprah…” the guy says. Heh. He also kind of reminds me of George McFly. When you put your mind to it, you can accomplish anything! “Stay weird,” he says. Moving speech. But it’s weird that this movie just won this award. Also, it’s worth mentioning that I am quite tipsy at this point AND I don’t have to work tomorrow – an excellent combo!

11:41 – Ugh, Neil, just cut your losses and get out of there already. This was not your night. Ben Affleck comes out to present Best Director. Oh my God. I’m slowly starting to resign myself to a likely BIRDMAN Best Picture win, but please let Richard Linklater win this! I would also accept Wes Anderson, but I really really really want Linklater to win. I’m nervous. And the Academy Award for Achievement in Directing goes to… Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for BIRDMAN. Fuck. That’s it. Stick a fork in BOYHOOD and my dream of my #1 movie of the year winning Best Picture for the first time in 11 years. I’m so bummed, I can’t even appreciate Inarritu’s joke about wearing Michael Keaton’s tighty whiteys. Seems like a pretty good and humble speech. And yes, BIRDMAN was an expertly-crafted movie that was in my own top 10. But… argh. LINKLATER WAS ROBBED.

11:48 – Jesus, as if I wasn’t already depressed about Linklater’s loss, they were playing the song from TOY STORY 2 when they came back from commercial. And now it’s Best Actor time. Well, the one good thing about a BIRDMAN sweep would be if Keaton wins here -- I’ve been rooting for him from the get-go. Bradley Cooper has had Oscar nods in three straight years and is a potential dark horse. Or maybe Cumberbatch now that IMITATION GAME already has a prize under its belt. But Eddie Redmayne was the apparent favorite coming into the night. And Cate Blanchett tells us that the Oscar goes to EDDIE REDMAYNE. And he is so super excited that it actually brought a smile to my sad face! He’s legit giddy and it’s infectious. And let’s face it, he was damn good and deserves this award.

11:53 – Matthew McConaughey comes out to “Eye of the Tiger,” which makes some semblance of sense to my gin and beer-addled brain. “Good evening… alright.” Epic scraggly beard. He is presenting Best Actress, of course, and there is no chance in the world that Julianne Moore doesn’t win this. BUT if something crazy happens, I would not be adverse to a Rosamund Pike steal. And the Oscar goes to one of our greatest treasures, JULIANNE MOORE. Her first Oscar! Would’ve preferred to have seen her win for any number of superior films over the years, but I’ll take it! Yay!

12:00 – Sigh, NPH’s Oscar predictions / briefcase gag continues. Not a good night for our boy… but he’s still better than Seth MacFarland. So, now, let’s see what’s in the damn briefcase and it’d better be fucking good. Oh boy. It’s filled with “predictions” of various random moments that have happened throughout the night and it was… not good or funny at all. Wow. Poor Neil. Decidedly un-legen – wait for it – ah, forget it.

12:03 – Sean Penn comes out to present the final award for Best Picture. Pretty much a foregone conclusion that BIRDMAN is going to win, especially when you consider that Penn worked with Inarritu on the film 21 GRAMS some years ago. But until that envelope is opened, I am gonna cling to the last vestiges of hope for a BOYHOOD win! Here we go. I’m nervous. And the Oscar goes to........ BIRDMAN. Sigh. Though it is cool to see Michael Keaton standing up there accepting the award with the group. But arghhhh I’m so sad. #TeamBoyhood Forever!!!


Aaaaaand that’s a wrap. Definitely a mixed bag of a show tonight. The most shocking thing is how bad Neil Patrick Harris was, aside from the excellent opening musical number. It was all downhill from there, with bad jokes and bits and ugh. What the hell went wrong?? Hamstrung by bad material? Oh well. As for the awards… well, not so good. I only went 7/24 on my ballot – as always, I vote with my heart, and my heart has long proved that it has shit for brains. The early success of THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL provided some early excitement, culminating with its thrilling and surprising Best Score win. But once the BIRDMAN dominoes began to fall, the night took a sad turn for #TeamBoyhood. Only one win for the best movie of 2014, but at least Patricia Arquette made the most of her big moment. It was great to see Julianne Moore take home her first Oscar, and hey, how about not one but TWO awards for Walt Disney Animation? As always, I must list my loveliest ladies of the night (in no particular order): Lupita! Scarlett! Marion Cotillard! Zoe Saldana! Emma Stone! Rosamund Pike’s leg! And a special lifetime achievement award to J-Lo’s cleavage! Despite the fact that I am drunk and bummed right now, I had a blast live-blogging the proceedings for the 10th straight year, and if you swung by and joined the fun for any length of time, I salute you and love you from the bottom of my heart. Goodnight everybody!

Last-Minute Oscar Thoughts & Predictions

I usually write a big, long, in-depth overview of the Oscar nominees, along with my predictions from both the heart and the mind, and all sorts of pretty pictures and stuff -- but, well, I never got around to it this year. Sorry! But as I sit here thinking about the upcoming festivities on this wintry Oscars Eve, I decided to throw together a quick round-up. To my credit, I've seen EVERY nominee in EVERY category except for two! Here’s what I think...

Screen-Shot-2014-05-12-at-9.28.01-AM

BEST PICTURE
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE IMITATION GAME
SELMA
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
WHIPLASH

At this point, it's all about #TeamBoyhood vs. #TeamBirdman. BOYHOOD was my #1 movie of 2014, so needless to say, I am squarely in the corner of Richard Linklater's grand opus. (If it wins, it will be the first time my #1 movie of the year has won Best Picture since THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING in 2004, so this is kind of a big deal.) It also seemed like the foregone winner for the longest time. However, BIRDMAN has been on a hot streak lately and may have forged slightly ahead. Granted, it was also pretty great, so if it wins, I would be very disappointed and indignant but it wouldn’t be a tragedy. If the two somehow cancel each other out, it is conceivable that SELMA could steal the big prize to make up for its acting & directing snubs. Actually, I enjoyed pretty much all of these nominees on some level -- except for the vastly overhyped, sort of mind-boggling box office juggernaut, AMERICAN SNIPER. If by chance it swoops in and steals the big prize, you can be sure that my live-blog will be filled with drunken expletives. But no... that can’t happen... GO BOYHOOD!

I’M ROOTING FOR: Boyhood
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Birdman, if its recent hot streak is any indication... but fingers crossed....

BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, FOXCATCHER
Bradley Cooper, AMERICAN SNIPER
Benedict Cumberbatch, THE IMITATION GAME
Michael Keaton, BIRDMAN
Eddie Redmayne, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

Similarly, it's pretty much come down to Keaton vs. Redmayne here. It makes sense for Keaton to win, since his comeback is half of the appeal of BIRDMAN. But Redmayne has been winning awards all over the place and his performance as Stephen Hawking does transcend typical Oscar-bait. I suppose it's conceivable that Bradley Cooper (with his third consecutive Oscar nod, by the way... who would've guessed?) could steal it... but nah. Redmayne is the safe bet but hopefully the Academy will opt for the comeback story. (Still pissed about David Oyelowo's snub, though. Jake Gyllenhaal, too.)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Keaton
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Redmayne

BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT
Felicity Jones, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Julianne Moore, STILL ALICE
Rosamund Pike, GONE GIRL
Reese Witherspoon, WILD

No surprises here. This is Julianne Moore's award to lose, and rightly so. STILL ALICE is sort of a meh movie, but her performance is outstanding. Plus it's her fifth nomination and would, incredibly, be her first win. That being said, I loved Rosamund Pike in GONE GIRL, so if there is going to be a crazy upset, she is my pick.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Moore (and Pike)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Moore

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, THE JUDGE
Ethan Hawke, BOYHOOD
Edward Norton, BIRDMAN
Mark Ruffalo, FOXCATCHER
J.K. Simmons, WHIPLASH

Again, no surprises. J.K. Simmons wins easily and deservedly. (Also, for the record, THE JUDGE is one of the worst Oscar-nominated films I've ever seen. I know they need a requisite Old Timer nominee and Duvall is a legend, but jeez.)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Simmons
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Simmons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, BOYHOOD
Laura Dern, WILD
Keira Knightley, THE IMITATION GAME
Emma Stone, BIRDMAN
Meryl Streep, INTO THE WOODS

I love love love that Laura Dern got a nod here because she was the scene-stealing heart of WILD. Would've loved to see Uma Thurman get nominated for her unforgettable turn in NYMPHOMANIAC, but that was never going to happen. Patricia Arquette has been sweeping her way through awards season and Oscar night will be no exception -- she was indeed great in BOYHOOD and deserves the accolades.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Dern
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Arquette

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro González Iñárritu, BIRDMAN
Richard Linklater, BOYHOOD
Bennett Miller, FOXCATCHER
Wes Anderson, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Morten Tydlum, THE IMITATION GAME

Whether BOYHOOD wins Best Picture or not, I think Richard Linklater will win the gold here. The man is arguably the best American filmmaker working today and no one else could have made BOYHOOD happen, let alone made it work so miraculously. If anyone is gonna steal this award, though, it will be Iñárritu... but that would be a shame.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Linklater
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Linklater

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
FOXCATCHER
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
NIGHTCRAWLER

This is where I think the Academy will finally honor Wes Anderson -- it's his third screenplay nod and would be his first win and would make me very happy because GRAND BUDAPEST was my #2 movie of the year. Sharp, crazy NIGHTCRAWLER is a potential dark horse. And BIRDMAN could win the event of a clean sweep, but hopefully not.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Grand Budapest
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Grand Budapest

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN SNIPER
THE IMITATION GAME
INHERENT VICE
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
WHIPLASH

I think WHIPLASH is considered the favorite here, but I'm gonna put a stack of chips on Paul Thomas Anderson for adapting a seemingly-unadaptable book into a movie that may be flawed by his lofty standards, but is still batshit crazy and rich and fun. Not sure the Academy is so forward-thinking, but fortunately, WHIPLASH is pretty damn good, too. God forbid AMERICAN SNIPER pulls off a shocking upset.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Inherent Vice
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Whiplash

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BIG HERO 6
THE BOXTROLLS
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2
SONG OF THE SEA
THE TALE OF PRINCESS KAGUYA

A lot of people think THE LEGO MOVIE got snubbed here, but to them I ask: What the heck would you have left out? As fun as LEGO is, all of these movies are superior. HTTYD2 is the odds-on favorite, and one of the best animated sequels ever... and yet, it is still the least of this bunch of very strong nominees. Personally, I'd love to see Tomm Moore's wonderful SONG OF THE SEA (my #10 movie of the year) pull it out. And of course, I'm always rooting for Disney deep down.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Song of the Sea (or Big Hero 6)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: HTTYD2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
IDA
LEVIATHAN
TANGERINES
TIMBUKTU
WILD TALES

I've seen all of these -- a rare feat! They are all extremely solid. LEVIATHAN was my favorite for a while, with its vodka-soaked Russian dark sociopolitical satire. But I just saw Argentina's WILD TALES tonight and was blown away by its gleefully deranged satire, and I am now fully on its bandwagon. Meanwhile, TIMBUKTU is a brilliant, beautiful, heartbreaking miracle of a film and TANGERINES offers an interesting perspective on war... but Poland's powerful, exquisitely-shot IDA has been the generally-accepted favorite for a while and will likely win.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Wild Tales
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Ida

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BIRDMAN
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
IDA
MR. TURNER
UNBROKEN

BIRDMAN is almost certainly going to win here, thanks to its memorable long takes and bombast. Nice to see MR. TURNER included because it was a sumptuous visual experience. GRAND BUDAPEST looks great and has fun with aspect ratios and it all works. UNBROKEN will mark the umpteenth nomination and umpteenth loss for the great Roger Deakins... unless of course the Academy finally chooses to honor him for one of his more forgettable works... which, come to think of it, is exactly something they would do.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Grand Budapest
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Birdman

BEST EDITING
AMERICAN SNIPER
BOYHOOD
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE IMITATION GAME
WHIPLASH

I think WHIPLASH is going to win solely for its final, thrilling, maniacally-edited sequence. But, like, BOYHOOD is pieced together from 12 freaking years of footage! That's gotta be hard! Nah, it'll be WHIPLASH. (Side note: When was the last time a movie won Best Picture without earning an Editing nod? I’ll tell you when: ORDINARY PEOPLE In 1981! Major side-eye to BIRDMAN right now....)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Boyhood
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Whiplash

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE IMITATION GAME
INTERSTELLAR
INTO THE WOODS
MR. TURNER

All of these movies looked very nice indeed. But GRAND BUDAPEST looked like an intricately-packaged box of candy inside an intricately-designed doll house inside a bigger intricately-designed box of candy. Gotta give it to Wes Anderson's unparalleled eye for mise-en-scene here.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Budapest
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Budapest

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
INHERENT VICE
INTO THE WOODS
MALEFICENT
MR. TURNER

All of these are pretty good, too. The '70s vibe of INHERENT VICE is the most awesome and my personal fav. However, Ralph Fiennes' uniform in BUDAPEST already feels iconic, and the movie looks so good, it might just sweep through all the design awards. However, MR. TURNER does have the period piece thing going for it, and Angelina Jolie looked great as MALEFICENT, and INTO THE WOODS is fantastic all-around.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Inherent Vice
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Budapest

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
FOXCATCHER
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY

FOXCATCHER probably wins this because they made Steve Carell look like a big-nosed freak and the Academy eats pieces of shit like that for breakfast. But come on, gotta give GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY some love! We are Groot!

I’M ROOTING FOR: Guardians!
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Foxcatcher

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alexandre Desplat, THE IMITATION GAME
Hans Zimmer, INTERSTELLAR
Gary Yershon, MR. TURNER
Jóhann Jóhannsson, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

I love the BUDAPEST score so f’ing much and listen to it often, but my guess is that the two Desplat scores will cancel each other out (hate when that happens). Really wish UNDER THE SKIN would've gotten a nod because that shit is creepy. The buzz-o-meter and the Twitterverse and whatever else says that THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING will win, but I’ll be damned if I can hum a single note.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Budapest
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Theory of Everything

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Everything Is Awesome” from THE LEGO MOVIE
“Glory” from SELMA
“Grateful” from BEYOND THE LIGHTS
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from GLEN CAMPBELL: I’LL BE ME
“Lost Stars” from BEGIN AGAIN

“Glory” is going to win here, if for no other reason than to ensure that SELMA gets an Oscar. However, “Everything is Awesome” SHOULD win, to ensure that THE LEGO MOVIE gets an Oscar. (Tough call, I know.) I also like the BEGIN AGAIN song, though it was not the song I would've chosen from that movie. “Grateful” is a good song from a very good, underrated movie. The Glen Campbell movie is one of the two Oscar nominated films that I haven't seen, so I haven't heard that song... I suppose I could just listen to it on that thing called the internet, but that seems like cheating (I'm a weirdo).

I’M ROOTING FOR: “Everything is Awesome”
WILL PROBABLY WIN: “Glory”

BEST SOUND MIXING
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN
INTERSTELLAR
UNBROKEN
WHIPLASH

The sound mix was a huge part of what made WHIPLASH so effective, and I think it should win. But along the same lines, it also helped make the battle scenes in AMERICAN SNIPER so effective... and in the end, war wins over music because 'Murrica.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Whiplash
WILL PROBABLY WIN: American Sniper

BEST SOUND EDITING
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN
THE HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES
INTERSTELLAR
UNBROKEN

The safe money is on SNIPER here, too -- the guns are loud and shooty. But you know what? Fuck it, I'm going to root for THE HOBBIT one last time.

I’M ROOTING FOR: The Hobbit
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Sniper

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER
DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY
INTERSTELLAR
X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST

Visual effects is always a geeky category, but it seems extra geeky this year, which is pretty cool. I'll be rooting for GUARDIANS once again because I loved it, though INTERSTELLAR, for all its flaws, looked mighty good, too. However, I think DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES will win, because Jesus Christ, how is Caesar not an actual talking ape??

I’M ROOTING FOR: Guardians
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Apes

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
CITIZENFOUR
FINDING VIVIAN MAIER
LAST DAYS IN VIETNAM
VIRUNGA
THE SALT OF THE EARTH

THE SALT OF THE EARTH is the other nominee that I haven't seen... sadness. VIVIAN MAIER is a fascinating portrait and VIETNAM is interesting and informative. Didn't much care for VIRUNGA. Not that any of that matters because the intense and important CITIZENFOUR is a veritable lock, and rightly so.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Citizenfour
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Citizenfour

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1 (USA)
JOANNA (Poland)
WHITE EARTH (USA)
THE REAPER (Mexico)
OUR CURSE (Poland)

Okay, so, do you choose the one about the suicide hotline for military veterans... the one that serves as a dying mother's farewell to her young son... the one about kids aimlessly living in a desolate oil town... the one about how working in a slaughterhouse for 25 years has been sapping a man's will to live... or the one about the young couple and their baby who was born with a rare & incurable breathing disease? Personally, I choose a bullet to the head. Seriously, though, they're all bleak but very good. JOANNA is the best of the bunch, in my opinion, but CRISIS HOTLINE is the likely winner.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Joanna
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Crisis Hotline

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
PARVANEH (Switzerland)
BOOGALOO AND GRAHAM (UK)
AYA (Israel & France)
THE PHONE CALL (UK)
BUTTER LAMP (France & China)

The weakest collection of live-action shorts in recent memory... none of these are particularly great. BOOGALOO AND GRAHAM, the story of two precocious British kids and their pet chickens, is the funniest and most memorable by far. But AYA, the story of woman who pretends to be a man's driver after an encounter at the airport, has a mix of emotion and quirk that could take the gold.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Boogaloo and Graham
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Aya

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
ME AND MY MOULTON (Canada)
FEAST (USA)
THE BIGGER PICTURE (UK)
A SINGLE LIFE (Netherlands)
THE DAM KEEPER (USA)

I loved all of these!!! I wish they could all win and everyone should go find them online and watch them real quick. A SINGLE LIFE may be my fav -- it packs a lot of laughs and melancholy into a mere two minutes, and does more with the concept of time travel than most feature length films. I also enjoyed the quirky ME AND MY MOULTON very much. THE DAM KEEPER is the kind of lovely message film that makes Oscar cry... but in the end, I think Disney's FEAST will win, and I would not argue because it is a veritable feast of feels.

I’M ROOTING FOR: A Single Life (or Feast)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Feast


And there you have it. Mark your ballots accordingly and don't forget to cut me in for a slice of your Oscar pool winnings. We are now mere hours away from my 10th ANNUAL LIVE MOMENT-BY-MOMENT STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS OSCAR COMMENTARY -- yes, I've been doing this for a damn decade -- tomorrow night starting with the ABC pre-show and red carpet at 7:00 p.m. EST. Please do swing by and join the fun whether you are watching the big show or not. It’s gonna be fun AND informative! (Plus I’ll be drinking.)

‘Til later... GO BOYHOOD!