Ben's Oscar Picks & Predictions

At last, the most wonderful time of the year is upon us -- OSCAR SEASON!  The nominations have been announced and the big show is exactly one month away... and boy oh boy, do I have a lot to say about this year's crazy crop of contenders.  In some cases (TOY STORY 3 for Best Picture!), I am very happy; in others (Natalie Portman for Best Actress and FOUR nods for the abysmal ALICE IN WONDERLAND), I am shaking my head in disgust; and in others still (no TRON: LEGACY for Best Score or Andrew Garfield for Supporting Actor or Ryan Gosling for Best Actor?), I am flat-out puzzled.  So, without further ado, let's take a look at the categories and see what there is to see.  As always, I will also provide my predictions based on who I want to win in my heart and who I think will win in the sometimes-harsh reality of life. Ready? GO! 

BEST PICTURE
BLACK SWAN
THE FIGHTER
INCEPTION
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
THE KING'S SPEECH
127 HOURS
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOY STORY 3
TRUE GRIT
WINTER'S BONE

You know, I really hope that this is the last time they decide to have ten Best Picture nominees because it’s already gotten old. Think of it this way: If there were only five nominees and they were BLACK SWAN, THE FIGHTER, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, 127 HOURS and WINTER’S BONE, the prevailing opinion would be that 2010 was a dud of a movie year. Not that the movies are bad (well, except for BLACK SWAN, which sucks)... they’re just not Best Picture material. For the remaining big guns, it’s a tough call. In a perfect world, I would love to see TOY STORY 3 win because (a) it’s the best movie of the year on my list, and (b) it would honor the complete trilogy as a whole, a la THE RETURN OF THE KING in 2003. I suppose it’s not outside the realm of possibility, but not very likely. INCEPTION would be a bold choice, but it’s too heady for the Academy. No, it’s going to be a three-horse race between THE SOCIAL NETWORK, THE KING’S SPEECH and TRUE GRIT -- for the big award and probably for most of the night. I hope hope HOPE that it’s TRUE GRIT, which is sheer cinematic perfection that only the Coen Bros. can provide. THE KING’S SPEECH has a lot of momentum right now, and it’s a very good film, but I don’t know... it doesn’t do it for me on that level. In the end, I think that this is the Facebook movie’s year. It is, after, the movie that defines this generation! And it is a truly tremendous film. (But man, wouldn’t it be great if TOY STORY won?)

I'M ROOTING FOR: Toy Story 3 or True Grit
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Social Network


BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, BIUTIFUL
Jeff Bridges, TRUE GRIT
Jesse Eisenberg, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Colin Firth, THE KING'S SPEECH
James Franco, 127 HOURS

Sorry to see that Ryan Gosling got snubbed here -- he was outstanding in BLUE VALENTINE and it almost doesn’t make sense to have nominated Michelle Williams but not him. I would have given him a nod over Bardem or Franco, mainly because I liked BLUE more than BIUTIFUL or 127 HOURS. (By the way, I also wouldn’t have minded seeing Robert Duvall for the completely-forgotten GET LOW. WTF, Academy?) But really, you can’t go wrong with any of these guys. I’ve been touting Jesse Eisenberg’s virtues for more than a decade and finally, I have been vindicated! Colin Firth was tremendous in THE KING’S SPEECH and is probably the favorite – plus that film’s acting is its strongest suit. But I have to root for Jeff Bridges, who wrested the character of Rooster Cogburn away from John Wayne and made it his own. I don’t know if it WILL happen, but the Dude SHOULD win his second straight Oscar, which would make him the first to do that since Tom Hanks for PHILADELPHIA/FORREST GUMP. Come on, Academy… abide!

I'M ROOTING FOR: The Dude
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Mr. Darcy


BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Nicole Kidman, RABBIT HOLE
Jennifer Lawrence, WINTER'S BONE
Natalie Portman, BLACK SWAN
Michelle Williams, BLUE VALENTINE

Funny thing is, this could be Annette Bening’s year if for no other reason than that Hilary Swank isn’t nominated (you may recall that Swank beat Bening the last two times they were both up for gold). But she shouldn’t win, because while she was good, the emotionally-wrenching performances of Kidman (a big return to form for her) and Williams and the determination of Jennifer Lawrence were much better (in fact, I’m pretty sure Lawrence is my #1 pick). Of course, that is all moot because of Natalie f’ing Portman. I’m sure she will win for the overrated pile of horse manure that is BLACK SWAN and I have been trying to mentally prepare myself for that so I don’t punch a hole in the wall. *sigh*

I'M ROOTING FOR: Jennifer Lawrence (or Nicole or Michelle or even Annette)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Natalie Portman (ugh)


BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, BLACK SWAN
David O. Russell, THE FIGHTER
Tom Hooper, THE KING'S SPEECH
David Fincher, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
The Coen Bros., TRUE GRIT

Puzzling that Christopher Nolan got snubbed here. I mean, for me, it’s a bit of a joke recognizing Aronofsky for what is basically a ripoff of his own movie (THE WRESTLER), while Nolan is left off despite crafting such a wildly original, mind-bending jigsaw puzzle of a film. But since the Academy has BLACK SWAN fever just like the rest of this sexually-repressed country, I’m not surprised. Could’ve easily left out David O. Russell, too... THE FIGHTER is good but INCEPTION is a billion times better. Again, it’s going to come down to THE KING’S SPEECH, THE SOCIAL NETWORK and TRUE GRIT. The Coens get my vote; Fincher will probably get the Academy’s.

I'M ROOTING FOR: The Coen Bros.
WILL PROBABLY WIN: David Fincher


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ANOTHER YEAR
THE FIGHTER
INCEPTION
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
THE KING'S SPEECH

Interesting stuff here. Again, just eliminate THE FIGHTER and THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT because they’re not winning anything other than perhaps an acting award apiece. INCEPTION would be a bold choice, and it certainly the most original story with ideas and themes and twists that have had people buzzing ever since it came out, but I don’t see it happening unless the Academy wants to make up for snubbing Nolan for Director. THE KING’S SPEECH has a shot if it sweeps (though, again, that movie owes its goodness more to the performances of the actors than the actual words they were saying). To be honest, I think we’ll see the great Mike Leigh get honored here for his latest great, moving, devastating film -- I’m actually surprised that this is ANOTHER YEAR’s only nod.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Inception
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Another Year


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 HOURS
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOY STORY 3
TRUE GRIT
WINTER'S BONE

I’m a little confused here. What, exactly, is TOY STORY 3 adapted from? Is there a 18th century novel entitled “The Toy Story” that I don’t know about? Just kidding... I learned that the Academy considers “true film sequels” (that is, sequels to a film that is not based on previously-written material) to be adapted from the original film. So there you have it.  (Sucks, though, because this is a much stronger category than Original Screenplay, and thus TS3’s chances of winning are much more slim.) Happy to see so much love for WINTER’S BONE, this year’s “little indie movie that could,” but it will probably miss out once again. 127 HOURS getting any of these major nods is kind of ridiculous. I’d love to see TRUE GRIT win because the Coens did an INCREDIBLE job of transferring Portis’ crazy written word to the screen -- it was like the book was written specifically for their eventual adaptation. But clearly this is THE SOCIAL NETWORK and Aaron Sorkin’s award to lose -- his script is so intense and loaded with whip-snappy dialogue that, at times, it feels like an action movie. I’ll have no problem seeing it win.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Toy Story 3 or True Grit
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Social Network


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER
John Hawkes, WINTER'S BONE
Jeremy Renner, THE TOWN
Mark Ruffalo, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Geoffrey Rush, THE KING'S SPEECH

Another category full of surprises. But still, as nice as it is to see Hawkes get a nod, and as good an actor as Renner is, I can’t believe they couldn’t find a way to make room for Andrew Garfield from THE SOCIAL NETWORK. (A case could also be made for Justin Timberlake, who pretty much stole every scene he was in. And actually, Garfield was also excellent in NEVER LET ME GO, a great film that was completely snubbed. P.S., I would have also accepted nods for Barry Pepper and/or Matt Damon from TRUE GRIT) Huge props to my boy Mark Ruffalo, finally getting rewarded for basically playing his usual Mark Ruffalo role (that is not a knock against him -- Mark Ruffalo rules). Geoffrey Rush is always great, but this is going to be Christian Bale’s award to lose. He was the best part of THE FIGHTER -- makes you wonder if he really became a crack addict to prepare for the role.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Christian Bale
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Christian Bale


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, THE FIGHTER
Helena Bonham Carter, THE KING'S SPEECH
Melissa Leo, THE FIGHTER
Hailee Steinfeld, TRUE GRIT
Jacki Weaver, ANIMAL KINGDOM

Man, two nominees from THE FIGHTER and neither of them are the Crazy Evil Sisters?? Hopefully those scary bitches will get a collective nomination for Best Villain at the MTV Movie Awards. I love me some Amy Adams, so I’d love to see her pick up some gold -- though I will settle for seeing her looking super hot on the red carpet. Melissa Leo appears to be the frontrunner at the moment, seemingly for no other reason than that she is Melissa Leo. Helena Bonham Carter was good (very nice to see her outside of Tim Burton’s world for a change), but I think she’s vastly overshadowed here. I literally just watched ANIMAL KINGDOM tonight and I’ve already forgotten what Jacki Weaver looks like... not that it matters because I am 100% rooting for Hailee Steinfeld! Granted, she should be in the Lead Actress category... but I think she might have a better chance of winning here, so I’ll allow it. The girl has grit and she deserves Oscar gold! (Incidentally, kind of surprised to not see Lesley Manville from ANOTHER YEAR on this list -- she gave an outstanding performance in a film full of outstanding performances. Oh well.)

I'M ROOTING FOR: Hailee Steinfeld
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Melissa Leo


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
John Powell, HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
Hans Zimmer, INCEPTION
Alexandre Desplat, THE KING'S SPEECH
A.R. Rahman, 127 HOURS
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Here, folks, we have the biggest Oscar snub so far. WHERE THE FUCK IS DAFT PUNK’S TRON: LEGACY SCORE?! Such an intense, relentless piece of work that drives the movie more than any other score I’ve heard all year. Damn shame of a snub. (I also would have liked to see Randy Newman’s TOY STORY 3 score because all it takes is a few notes here and there and I’m bawling. That’s a sign of a memorable score.) All that being said, Reznor & Ross’ SOCIAL NETWORK score is awesome and, I think, the clear favorite -- hell, it helps makes writing an algorithm on a window pane seem like a kick-ass action sequence. I also love the thundering INCEPTION score, which is Hans Zimmer’s finest work in years. Don’t really remember much about the music from DRAGON, SPEECH and HOURS (though if Desplat had been nominated for HARRY POTTER 7, we might have a tighter race on our hands).

I'M ROOTING FOR: The Social Network
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Social Network


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Coming Home," COUNTRY STRONG
"I See the Light," TANGLED
"If I Rise," 127 HOURS
"We Belong Together," TOY STORY 3

Eh, nothing too exciting here. I’ll be rooting for the TOY STORY 3 song because it’s from TOY STORY 3 and thus will probably make me get all misty-eyed (hell, I felt a lump in my throat when I found that photo to the left). All of the TANGLED songs were pretty good, though I personally preferred “I’ve Got a Dream.” Don’t remember the 127 HOURS song, and don’t care for the COUNTRY STRONG song. So there you have it. Now here’s hoping for a Naked Underwater Ballet interpretation of each nominee during the telecast, a la the infamous scene in PIRHANA 3-D! (NSFW)

I'M ROOTING FOR: "We Belong Together"
WILL PROBABLY WIN: "We Belong Together"


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLACK SWAN
INCEPTION
THE KING'S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TRUE GRIT

Can’t really argue with any of these nominees... except THE KING’S SPEECH. Not quite sure I understand that one. Basically the movie is one guy sitting around teaching another guy how to speak properly. Not a whole lot of groundbreaking camerawork involved in that. Or maybe I just don’t understand cinematography as much as I thought. But whatever. Much as I hate BLACK SWAN, at least it was well-shot. THE SOCIAL NETWORK is probably the frontrunner -- it felt like it could have taken place in David Fincher’s twisted universe. INCEPTION had all sorts of crazy dreamlike visuals. But I gotta go with TRUE GRIT, the best-looking full-fledged sweeping and, yes, gritty western we’ve seen in a long time.

I'M ROOTING FOR: True Grit
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Social Network


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 1
HEREAFTER
INCEPTION
IRON MAN 2

More bullshit here. I cannot believe that TRON: LEGACY didn’t get nominated -- it had the best and most groundbreaking visual effects of the year, by far! Also, SCOTT PILGRIM vs. THE WORLD should be in there. The Academy must have been smoking Christian Bale’s leftover crack when they instead voted for HEREAFTER -- absolutely nothing worthwhile in that movie -- and ALICE IN WONDERLAND getting any nominations at this ceremony, let alone four, is a joke, too. (Fun fact: This is the first time ever that an Oscar category has contained not one but TWO movies from my Bottom 10 of the year.) I’m not a huge fan of IRON MAN 2, which was inferior to the original in every way. This will be between POTTER and INCEPTION -- both are worthy, but INCEPTION is more memorable (rotating hallway fight, anyone?), original and probably wins.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Potter or Inception
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Inception


BEST FILM EDITING
BLACK SWAN
THE FIGHTER
THE KING'S SPEECH
127 HOURS
THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Once again, I think BLACK SWAN and THE FIGHTER can be eliminated right off the bat because neither of those movies are winning anything except for the one acting award for which they are most associated (Actress and Supporting Actress, respectively). THE KING’S SPEECH could pull this out if it sweeps. But I think this should be between 127 HOURS, which required some crafty editing to make a single-location, one-actor film seem intense and full of life (though, to be honest, I preferred BURIED as far as “one guy trapped in a small, confined spot” movies are concerned) and THE SOCIAL NETWORK, which, as I mentioned, feels like an action movie at times, using dialogue and quick cuts as weapons (the opening scene alone... d’gah). Like!

I'M ROOTING FOR: The Social Network
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Social Network


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
BIUTIFUL, Mexico
DOGTOOTH, Greece
IN A BETTER WORLD, Denmark
INCENDIES, Canada
OUTSIDE THE LAW, Algeria

Can’t believe I saw 141 movies in 2010, but only ONE of these nominees. I am such an uncultured ass. Then again, it may not have been my fault because I don’t ever recall these movies playing in NYC. Could be wrong about that, but for now, that’s my excuse, dammit. I did see BIUTIFUL and it was an excruciating movie indeed -- very good and seemingly Oscar-worthy. I have heard great things about DOGTOOTH and, in fact, it is at the very top of my Netflix Instant queue. Hopefully I’ll get to see some of the others, too, before the big show.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Biutiful, by default (so far)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Oh, let’s say... Dogtooth


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP
GASLAND
INSIDE JOB
RESTREPO
WASTE LAND

Ooh, ooh, I’ve actually seen two of these, thanks to the wonders of Netflix Instant! I watched EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP the other day and even though I don’t really care much about street art, it is a fun doc & even better practical joke on the whole scene. RESTREPO, meanwhile, is anything but fun -- it’s a visceral, very real look at life in Afghanistan for a platoon of U.S. soldiers. Crazy, intense and a must-see. I hope to see the other three films if possible, but for now it’s a two-horse race in my mind. My guess is that the Academy goes for the “fun” choice, if for no other reason than to see what kind of crazy shit Banksy pulls during the live show (and that would be cool indeed) -- but the “important” film is definitely the more worthy choice. (By the way, speaking of important -- and controversial -- films, where's WAITING FOR "SUPERMAN?" Oh well.)

I'M ROOTING FOR: Restrepo
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Exit Through the Gift Shop


BEST ANIMATED FILM
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
THE ILLUSIONIST
TOY STORY 3

No surprises here, except that they easily could have included TANGLED and MEGAMIND and had five very solid nominees. This really was a tremendous year for animation across the board... but once again, Pixar comes out on top and this belongs to TOY STORY 3. Also, I mean, think about it: How could TOY STORY 3 lose this award when it’s also nominated for the Best Picture of ANY kind? That would not make a damn bit of sense. Props to DRAGON and ILLUSIONIST, though -- both excellent films in their own rights. (In fact, I wonder if it would make more sense to just give Pixar a Special Achievement Award every year so that the other animated films have a shot to win the regular award? Just a thought.)

I'M ROOTING FOR: Toy Story 3
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Toy Story 3


BEST MAKEUP
BARNEY'S VERSION
THE WAY BACK
THE WOLFMAN

Huh, so BARNEY’S VERSION is considered a 2010 movie by the Academy after all? Kinda surprised we didn’t see Golden Globe winner Giamatti snag a Best Actor nod, in that case (would have booted Bardem or Franco for him, too) -- not to mention scene-stealing Dustin Hoffman for Supporting Actor. Anyway, I think it will win here because there was some fine aging technology on display in that movie. I haven’t seen THE WAY BACK yet, though I plan on doing so ASAP because I’m a Peter Weir fan. As for THE WOLFMAN... meh... the movie sucked, and Benicio Del Toro already kind of looks like a werewolf, so any makeup they may have used was just overkill.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Barney's Version
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Barney's Version


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
I AM LOVE
THE KING'S SPEECH
THE TEMPEST
TRUE GRIT

Some might argue that ALICE IN WONDERLAND is worthy for this category if nothing else, but I’m disqualifying it on the grounds that it sucks my arse through a straw. I AM LOVE was an artsy Italian melodrama and thus everyone was dressed as such -- I didn’t love the film but it definitely looked good. Everyone in THE KING’S SPEECH was dressed ever-so-British but it was nothing spectacular. I didn’t see THE TEMPEST, but you can never count out Shakespeare. Which brings us once again to TRUE GRIT. Can’t see how anyone can look at Rooster’s disheveled getup, Mattie Ross’ oversized hat and LaBoeuf’s spurs and not give it this award.

I'M ROOTING FOR: True Grit
WILL PROBABLY WIN: True Grit


BEST ART DIRECTION
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 1
INCEPTION
THE KING'S SPEECH
TRUE GRIT

Funny thing is, if ALICE IN WONDERLAND hadn’t been such a god-awful train wreck, I might actually have been able to appreciate whatever aesthetic value it may have had. But as it stands, Tim Burton can kiss my aforementioned arse. I have no problem with THE KING’S SPEECH competing strong in the acting categories, but in these technical areas it pales next to the competition. This is another triple-threat match in my book: HP7.1 looked and felt as if it was shrouded in darkness and despair from act 1, scene 1. INCEPTION is filled with some of the most memorable images of the year and could be the frontrunner. TRUE GRIT captures the visual essence of an old-time western and Portis’ written word. It could go any of those ways, but I’m sticking with TRUE GRIT for the sweep.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Potter or Grit or Inception
WILL PROBABLY WIN: True Grit


BEST SOUND EDITING
INCEPTION
TOY STORY 3
TRON: LEGACY
TRUE GRIT
UNSTOPPABLE

Oh, hey, look at that, the Academy remembered that TRON: LEGACY exists. That being said, I’d be lying if I said that I fully understand the sound editing process... I think it has to do with the creation of sound, and sound effects, and that sort of thing? I don’t know. Actually, if that’s the case, then TRON or TOY STORY 3 could win because they’re both full of crazy sounds. TRUE GRIT definitely features the best use of gunfire in a movie. UNSTOPPABLE is an odd choice, but admittedly, few sounds are more intense than that of an onrushing train. But my guess is that INCEPTION (sleep)walks away with this one.

I'M ROOTING FOR: TRON or Toy Story 3
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Inception


BEST SOUND MIXING
INCEPTION
THE KING'S SPEECH
SALT
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TRUE GRIT

This category, as I understand it, deals with the way the various sounds, effects, dialogue, etc. are slapped together (or “mixed,” in the parlance of our times). Um, SALT is a very odd choice, and an unmemorable one at that (though the film was fun in the moment). THE KING’S SPEECH, again, did not seem like much of a technical marvel in this area, even though it was all about speech & dialogue. THE SOCIAL NETWORK and TRUE GRIT are perfect films through-and-through so I’d have no issue with them winning, but I think INCEPTION takes this one, too. Sounds on top of sounds in multiple layers of dream worlds... insane. (The way they use Edith Piaf’s “Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien” is the first example that comes to mind.) 

I'M ROOTING FOR: Inception
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Inception

I am also very excited to once again spend the day at the IFC Center checking out the Oscar-nominated Short Films -- they should be released within the next couple of weeks, and you can bet that I’ll provide a full report (aside from Live Action and Animation, this year they will also be showing the Documentary Shorts for the first time!). Oscar Night is Sunday, February 27th, and you should definitely bookmark this site if you haven’t already, because I will be right here, for the sixth straight year, conducting my epic, entertaining, informative LIVE MOMENT-BY-MOMENT OSCAR COMMENTARY! But in the meantime, let’s discuss the nominees! GO!