Ben's Oscar Picks & Predictions

It’s the most wonderful time of the yeeeearrrr! That’s right -- it’s Oscar time! The nominations have been announced and apparently the Academy has kind of gone off the deep end. There are some very questionable picks and mind-boggling snubs -- but also some really good picks that make me very happy -- and also some flat-out weirdness. But I guess that’s fitting since it was a weird year for movies. With that in mind, let's take a look at each category and try to figure out what the Academy has been smoking. As always, I will also provide my predictions based on who I WANT to win and who I think WILL win. Ready? LET'S GO!

BEST PICTURE
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE
THE HELP
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE

Fun fact: my #1 movie of the year hasn’t won Best Picture since RETURN OF THE KING in 2004, and here we have HUGO with a total of 11 nods, which suddenly thrusts it into the discussion. Could it happen?? God, I hope so! As of now, THE ARTIST and THE DESCENDANTS are probably the two frontrunners, so here’s hoping they cancel each other out, thus allowing HUGO to swoop in. I also love that MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (my #2 movie of the year) is getting some major recognition. Wasn’t sure if THE HELP would sustain its buzz but apparently it has; that's fine. MONEYBALL is a good movie; never thought of it as a Best Picture contender, but here we are. WAR HORSE is this year’s SEABISCUIT, I guess; I liked it, and it IS the kind of movie that makes Oscar cry. The Academy probably included THE TREE OF LIFE to make itself feel smart. And then there’s EXTREMELY LOUD, which I also liked, but come on! One of the most baffling Best Picture choices ever, especially considering it is neither a critical nor commercial success. I reeeeally wish they’d just go back to five nominees -- nine is better than ten, but still way too many, especially since, let’s face it, this is a three-horse race at most. And while it would give me great pleasure to see HUGO win, I can’t argue with the silent film (which also made my Top 10) and the Clooney picture (which just missed).

I’M ROOTING FOR: Hugo
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Artist

BEST ACTOR
Demián Bichir, A BETTER LIFE
George Clooney, THE DESCENDANTS
Jean Dujardin, THE ARTIST
Gary Oldman, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL

First of all, let’s talk about who WASN’T nominated -- namely, Michael Shannon for TAKE SHELTER (best overall performance of the year, in my opinion), Ryan Gosling for DRIVE and Michael Fassbender for SHAME. Utterly senseless (unless maybe Fassbender also got votes for some of his other films and cancelled himself out?). One of these guys should absolutely be there instead of Bichir, whose nomination makes no sense to me. A BETTER LIFE had a strong story but, frankly, the acting was just not very good -- yet Bichir has had buzz swirling around him for a while and I guess it worked out. A wasted nomination. On the other hand, it is SUPREMELY AWESOME that Gary Oldman has finally gotten his first nod! I think he will take the gold -- one of those “career” wins, plus his performance in TINKER TAILOR was one for the ages -- despite the frontrunner status of both Clooney and Dujardin (either of whom would also be deserving). Pitt, meanwhile, was excellent in MONEYBALL but doesn’t stand a chance.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Oldman
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Oldman

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, ALBERT NOBBS
Viola Davis, THE HELP
Rooney Mara, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Meryl Streep, THE IRON LADY
Michelle Williams, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

More massive snubs here: It’s an absolute travesty that Tilda Swinton and Elizabeth Olsen were not nominated for their work in WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN and MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE, respectively -- easily two of the best performances of the year. I also would have loved to see Kirsten Dunst get a nod for MELANCHOLIA, but it seems that film has been blacklisted across the board, perhaps due to Lars von Trier’s Nazi comments at Cannes. Too bad. Anyway, I still think Michelle Williams’ magical performance as Marilyn Monroe is the one to beat, and rightly so. But don’t count out Viola Davis, who could win if the Academy decides to make a statement by honoring THE HELP. Streep is nominated for the 17th time, but will likely lose for the 15th time because THE IRON LADY is simply not very good in spite her efforts (unless of course the Academy decides that this is the year to finally honor her -- who could argue with that?). Sorry, Glenn Close, but your nomination is a joke. Lastly, I’ve heard some buzz brewing for Rooney Mara -- I guess that makes her the dark horse, but she’s not even the best Lisbeth Salander that we’ve seen recently, so it’d be silly if she won.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Williams
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Williams, but maybe Davis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
Jonah Hill, MONEYBALL
Nick Nolte, WARRIOR
Christopher Plummer, BEGINNERS
Max Von Sydow, EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE

Bizarreness abound here. First of all, how weird is it that Jonah Hill is an Oscar nominee?? Dude loses a bunch of weight, doesn’t die, and look what happens! Makes you wonder what might’ve been if Farley had cleaned up his act... sigh. I seriously don’t get the love for Nick Nolte in WARRIOR -- the movie was surprisingly good because of the way it wore its heart on its sleeve, but the acting was pretty mediocre across the board. Branagh was very good as Sir Lawrence Olivier; a worthy nod. Max von Sydow seems like a gimmick nod for two reasons: (1) Because he didn’t speak a word in the film, and (2) so they could have two octogenarians going against each other. Speaking of which, might as well give Plummer the gold right now -- he was fantastic in BEGINNERS, a movie I would’ve liked to see get even more love!

I’M ROOTING FOR: Plummer
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Plummer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, THE ARTIST
Jessica Chastain, THE HELP
Melissa McCarthy, BRIDESMAIDS
Janet McTeer, ALBERT NOBBS
Octavia Spencer, THE HELP

Kind of surprised that Shailene Woodley from THE DESCENDANTS didn’t get a nod here, especially since the film got so much love from the Academy. She DEFINITELY should have gotten the spot over McCarthy, whose nod is just ridiculous. BRIDESMAIDS is now officially the most overrated movie of 2011. It was funny and all, but NO WAY IN HELL does it deserve Oscar attention! Hell, if THE 40-YEAR-OLD VIRIGIN isn’t Oscar-worthy, then BRIDESMAIDS sure the hell isn’t. Ridiculous. Meanwhile, law of averages said that Chastain would get nominated for something -- the girl was in SEVEN movies last year (THE HELP being her best work). Bejo was enchanting in THE ARTIST and could surprise if the film sweeps. McTeer was by far the best thing about the otherwise-lame ALBERT NOBBS -- in fact she breathed legit life into the proceedings to the point where I may actually be rooting for her on some level. But I think Spencer will win this one -- she was the clear standout of THE HELP’s very solid ensemble.

I’M ROOTING FOR: McTeer or Spencer 
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Spencer

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Terrence Malick, THE TREE OF LIFE
Alexander Payne, THE DESCENDANTS
Martin Scorcese, HUGO

Call me crazy, but I have a feeling that Scorcese could pull this one out regardless of how HUGO fares the rest of the night. Academy could choose to honor him for the “pro-cinema” message that HUGO conveys, not to mention that probably no one else could have made the film work quite so well. I hope that happens. But Hazanavicius or Payne could pull it out if either of those films sweeps. I love PARIS but it’s more a testament to Allen’s writing. As for Malick... meh.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Scorcese
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Scorcese, Hazanavicius or Payne... who knows?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE ARTIST
BRIDESMAIDS
MARGIN CALL
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
A SEPARATION

PARIS! PARIS PARIS! If Woody Allen wins this, for what is easily his best movie in decades, and possibly of all time (yeah, I said it), I will be deliriously happy. It could face stiff competition from A SEPARATION, which featured a ridiculously taut and compelling script. THE ARTIST is probably the favorite by default, but even if it sweeps elsewhere, I hope the Academy spreads the wealth here. MARGIN CALL is the only major Oscar nominee I haven’t seen -- which pisses me off, since I saw 155 movies last year -- but I will rectify that soon and you can’t rule out films with timely topics. And BRIDESMAIDS... gimme a break. Probably the first time an Oscar-nominated screenplay features an extended scene about diarrhea -- which wouldn’t have necessarily been a bad thing if the scene was actually funny.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Paris
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Artist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE DESCENDANTS
HUGO
THE IDES OF MARCH
MONEYBALL
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

Obviously I’ll be rooting for Scorcese’s magical ode to cinema, HUGO, and I guess it could win if it wins everything (which would be awesome). That said, I think Alexander Payne and THE DESCENDANTS will win this one regardless of what it does elsewhere. Or maybe TINKER TAILOR’s dense but gripping story will pull it off. THE IDES OF MARCH isn’t really eye-opening as far as political revelations are concerned, but it was entertainingly cynical. MONEYBALL, again, is just along for the ride, but always nice to see a baseball movie get some love (actually, when’s the last time that has happened?).

I’M ROOTING FOR: Hugo
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Descendants

BEST ANIMATED FILM
A CAT IN PARIS
CHICO & RITA
KUNG FU PANDA 2
PUSS IN BOOTS
RANGO

Wow... let’s just take a moment and contemplate the fact that, for the first time ever, Pixar is NOT nominated in a year they’ve released an eligible film. That’s just... wow. But hey, nice of them to phone it in this year to open up the field for a change (they had won FOUR years in a row, and six overall). I will tell you right now, I had not heard of A CAT IN PARIS and CHICO & RITA before the nominations were released, but I now can’t wait to se them -- kudos to the Academy for thinking outside the box when it comes to animation, at least! Since THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN didn’t get a nod for some reason (does the Academy consider motion-capture to be cheating?), as of now, RANGO is my pick to win -- it is a great film, and another testament to movie-lovers, which seems to be a theme this year. I actually would have nominated CARS 2 over KUNG FU PANDA 2, but no matter -- neither it nor PUSS IN BOOTS will win.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Rango, for now
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Rango, for now

BEST FOREIGN FILM
BULLHEAD (Belgium)
FOOTNOTE (Israel)
IN DARKNESS (Poland)
MONSIEUR LAZHAR (Canada)
A SEPARATION (Iran)

Well, the only one of these I’ve seen is A SEPARATION, the clear frontrunner, and one of the best movies of the year, foreign or otherwise. If one of these other titles is going to win, it will have to be REALLY freaking good (though a quick perusal of plot summaries informs me that IN DARKNESS is about the Holocaust, so it can’t be counted out). Hopefully I’ll get a chance to see some of them before the big show. Come on, Netflix and IFC Center, don’t let me down!

I’M ROOTING FOR: A Separation
WILL PROBABLY WIN: A Separation

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE ARTIST
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE

I’m gonna stick with HUGO across the board here -- Scorcese’s films are always visually interesting, but this one is a veritable feast for the eyes, and he made 3D glasses a necessary part of the movie-watching experience for the first time ever. It should win for breathing new life into a technology that had very nearly worn out its welcome. THE ARTIST, of course, has the whole black-and-white, old-Hollywood thing going for it. WAR HORSE has an epic, GONE WITH THE WIND-esque look that we rarely see anymore. DRAGON TATTOO looks like it could be set within David Fincher’s crazy universe, which is always interesting. But I can see the Academy throwing THE TREE OF LIFE a bone here -- it might be overwrought, but it sure is pretty.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Hugo
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Tree of Life

BEST EDITING
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
MONEYBALL

What’s the rule of thumb? The Best Picture winner almost always wins Best Editing? Or at least, they’re always nominated for both... which rules out DRAGON TATTOO (which is ironic because it was extremely well-crafted). Not really sure what will happen here, to be honest. I’m rooting for HUGO because I love it, but THE ARTIST and THE DESCENDANTS could easily scoop it up. All I know for sure is that MONEYBALL ain’t winnin’ nothin’. Actually, the movie that should probably be here is DRIVE, but that movie got snubbed something fierce... damn shame.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Hugo
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Artist

BEST ART DIRECTION
THE ARTIST
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 2
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
WAR HORSE

No way THE ARTIST doesn’t win this one, since it is such a perfect recreation of a classic-era silent film. But lest we forget, HUGO captured that same time period from another perspective (and set in Paris, which is innately prettier than Hollywood). Come to think of it, so did MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, much of which was set in 1920’s Paris -- I’d have no problem seeing that win. I also love the aesthetics and locations of WAR HORSE and POTTER, so really, I’d be okay with any of these.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Hugo or Potter or Paris 
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Artist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
ANONYMOUS
THE ARTIST
HUGO
JANE EYRE
W.E.

Period pieces abound here. Haven’t seen ANONYMOUS yet, but I’m guessing it has the Shakespearean thing going for it. JANE EYRE has the 19th century England thing going for it. W.E., also, surely looks ever-so-British (damn you, Madonna). It’s probably between HUGO and THE ARTIST for their recreations of the golden age of cinema in Paris and Hollywood, respectively. Could go either way! (P.S., you guys getting tired of all the HUGO pics? Well, too bad! SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP!)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Hugo
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Artist

BEST MAKEUP
ALBERT NOBBS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 2
THE IRON LADY

Whew, thank God J. EDGAR wasn’t nominated here -- worst old-age makeup ever (in fact, I’m glad that shitty movie got snubbed across the board). Forget about MRS. DOUBTFIRE, er, I mean, ALBERT NOBBS (seriously, don’t they look similar?). Meryl Streep’s transformation into Margaret Thatcher was impressive so IRON LADY is a possibility. But I think POTTER, with all its creatures and characters and things, has to win here. Hell, in a perfect world, POTTER would get an honorary Oscar to pay tribute to the series as a whole, since it is collectively one of the great cinematic achievements of our time. A measly makeup award is the least the Academy can do!

I’M ROOTING FOR: Potter
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Potter

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
THE ARTIST
HUGO
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
WAR HORSE

Bah, none of my favorite scores of the year are here, so one of my favorite categories is ruined. EXTREMELY LOUD is not Best Picture-worthy, but I would have liked to see Alexandre Desplat’s score get some recognition (not to mention his POTTER score, which tied the saga together nicely). I really liked the score for BEGINNERS, too. Also, what does the Academy have against electronica? No Daft Punk / TRON: LEGACY last year (a travesty that still sticks in my craw) and no Chemical Brothers for HANNA this year. (Just realized that Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross’ DRAGON TATTOO score was snubbed, too -- guess the Academy was also freaked out after seeing Trent in a tux last year.) Anyway... can’t argue with a double-dose of John Williams, though neither TINTIN nor WAR HORSE were particularly memorable (still, I’d cheer loudly if he won). Loved everything about HUGO. Don’t remember TINKER TAILOR. I think I’ll actually pick THE ARTIST since the score is so vital to a silent film and it works wonders -- though I understand one of the more prominent cues is actually lifted from the score to VERTIGO, so that’s kinda cheating, maybe. I dunno. It’s still good.

I’M ROOTING FOR: The Artist 
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Artist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Man or Muppet" from THE MUPPETS
"Real in Rio" from RIO

Ladies and gentlemen, we live in a world in which THE MUPPETS are nominated for an Oscar! This is awesome because it means they will probably be there... and Jason Segel & Walter will probably perform the song, which is almost guaranteed to win because who gives a crap about RIO. Kind of funny that people always complain about the Best Song performances taking up too much time during the telecast, so this year they whittled it down to two. This is a good thing because it means we won’t have to suffer through crap from Madonna and Sinead O’Connor and whoever else. Instead, we get MUPPETS!!!

I’M ROOTING FOR: Muppets!
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Muppets!

BEST SOUND MIXING
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
MONEYBALL
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE

Just to recap (mostly for my own benefit), sound mixing refers to the way the various sounds, effects, dialogue, etc., of a film are mixed together to create the glorious euphonies that fill our ears when we watch a film. Or in the case of TRANSFORMERS, cacophonies -- the sound mix is crazy in that film, but not necessarily in a good way. MONEYBALL seems like an odd choice, and DRAGON TATTOO probably featured a good sound mix but damned if it sticks out in my head. HUGO is a perfect film through-and-through, but you know what? I’m gonna go with WAR HORSE here just to mix things up (pun very much intended). Lots of stuff going on in that epic, with the sounds of war and the horse itself and the sweeping score and everything in between.

I’M ROOTING FOR: War Horse or Hugo
WILL PROBABLY WIN: War Horse?

BEST SOUND EDITING
DRIVE
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE

Sound editing, meanwhile, is related to sound design, the creation of sound effects, etc. Maybe DRIVE will get a pity award here. Or TRANSFORMERS -- I bet if you break down the aforementioned cacophony of those mind-blowing action sequences, the individual sound effects are pretty impressive. I feel like HUGO and DRAGON TATTOO both utilized some interesting sound effects. And WAR HORSE, again, with the war and the horse and etc. -- I bet it wins both categories. But really, this is another crapshoot.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Transformers or Hugo
WILL PROBABLY WIN: War Horse

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 2
HUGO
REAL STEEL
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON

Some good-looking stuff across the board here -- but it’s a moot point because this award belongs to RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES primarily for the unbelievable motion-capture performance of Andy Serkis. I mean, he could have conceivably gotten an ACTING nomination if the Academy had any balls. As it stands, this award will be the only way to honor the reigning King of Motion Capture. Hopefully the special effects guys will bring Serkis on stage with them when they win!

I’M ROOTING FOR: Apes
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Apes

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
HELL AND BACK AGAIN
IF A TREE FALLS: A STORY OF THE EARTH LIBERATION FRONT
PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
PINA
UNDEFEATED

Again, I’ve only seen one of these -- Wim Wenders’ PINA -- and it was absolutely outstanding, from the jaw-dropping 3D visuals to the genuine emotional punch. As with the foreign films, the other nominees will have to be REALLY damn good to beat it. Looking forward to seeing as many of them as possible before the big show. (HELL and TREE are both available on Instant Netflix, so that’s a good start!)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Pina, for now
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Pina


Of course, I also fully intend to see the Oscar-nominated short films, which open at the IFC Center on Feb. 10th. (This year, I even hope to squeeze in the documentary shorts for the first time ever!) Oscar night is Sunday, Feb. 26th and you can bet that I will be right here at BenLikesMovies.com with my 7th ANNUAL LIVE MOMENT-BY-MOMENT OSCAR COMMENTARY! Seriously... it is always epic and entertaining and insightful and a damn good time, so be sure to check in throughout the telecast. Until then... who do YOU want to / think will win Oscar gold? Discuss!