Oscar Picks & Predictions!

Yay, the Oscar nominations have been announced, and all in all, they look pretty solid. Most of the nominees that should have gotten nominated are there, and there are very few glaring errors or omissions. Of course, there were a few surprises, both pleasant and befuddling, but that's all part of the fun. This year, the big news is that they expanded the Best Picture category to TEN nominees... which seems like overkill and a desperate attempt to boost ratings (which it is)... but it's not unprecedented, as they used to have anywhere from 8 to 12 nominees back in the '30s and '40s. Also, 2009 was such a strong year for movies that you could make a case for almost all of the nominees... so that helps.

So, now, let's take a look at the major categories and run through the nominees, followed by my predictions based on what I'm rooting for AND what I think will actually win. Ready? GO!

BEST PICTURE
AVATAR
THE BLIND SIDE
DISTRICT 9
AN EDUCATION
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
PRECIOUS
A SERIOUS MAN
UP
UP IN THE AIR

Okay, let's get this clusterfuck out of the way right off the bat. I honestly think that because there are so many nominees, the ones that probably SHOULD win will cancel each other out and the big gun, AVATAR, will walk away with the gold in the end. Personally, I think AVATAR would be better suited for a Special Achievement Award rather than the big prize... but it is such a monumental achievement and a landmark in the history of film that I would not be upset if it wins. Meanwhile, I am utterly thrilled that my #1 movie of the year, the Coen Bros.' A SERIOUS MAN, got recognized... there is no way in hell it will win, but man, that would be awesome. Also nice to see Pixar earn its very first Best Picture nod -- and it's the first animated film to get nominated since BEAUTY AND THE BEAST in 1991! Ironic, though, since I didn't love UP as much as other Pixar films and it wouldn't have been my choice for their first nod. Still, if it wins, I will smile. THE BLIND SIDE is the only real joke here... fine movie, but gimme a goddamn break. DISTRICT 9 is the most pleasant surprise of all the nominees -- I would love to see it pull off an upset. AN EDUCATION was also a fantastic little film but probably gets overshadowed here. THE HURT LOCKER has a ton of momentum and has won slews of other awards, so it is probably the Na'vi's biggest competition. INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, PRECIOUS and UP IN THE AIR are all incredible films but, as I said, will likely get in each other's way, leaving the field open for James Cameron's juggernaut.

I'M ROOTING FOR: A Serious Man
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Avatar


BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, CRAZY HEART
George Clooney, UP IN THE AIR
Colin Firth, A SINGLE MAN
Morgan Freeman, INVICTUS
Jeremy Renner, THE HURT LOCKER

No real surprises here, though I am disappointed that Michael Stuhlbarg from A SERIOUS MAN has been snubbed once again -- he would have been my pick if he was here. A SINGLE MAN, meanwhile, is one of the few major nominees that I haven't seen, so I'll to check that out over the next month. Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela was a stroke of obvious genius, but other than that, INVICTUS sucked, so forget it. Clooney was in ace movie star form in UP IN THE AIR and would not be a bad choice at all. Jeremy Renner was tremendous in THE HURT LOCKER, and could strike gold if the movie dominates. But I think this is the year that Academy will abide, and give the award to the Dude -- not only was Jeff Bridges great in CRAZY HEART, but few actors are more deserving of some major accolades.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Jeff Bridges
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Bridges or Clooney


BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, THE BLIND SIDE
Helen Mirren, THE LAST STATION
Carey Mulligan, AN EDUCATION
Gabourey Sidibe, PRECIOUS
Meryl Streep, JULIE & JULIA

Pretty much expected to see these ladies here, too. Sandra Bullock was better than usual in THE BLIND SIDE, but again, ain't no way that movie is worthy to be on any of these lists. Helen Mirren was her usual excellent self in THE LAST STATION, and you can never count her out. Likewise for the great Streep, whose performance as Julia Child is one of the year's most enjoyable. Gabby Sidibe was perfect as the tragic, gut-wrenching PRECIOUS, and she may be the most deserving winner. But I'll be rooting for my new lady love, Carey Mulligan -- AN EDUCATION was a great film and she was breathtaking!

I'M ROOTING FOR: Carey Mulligan
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Sidibe or Streep


BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron, AVATAR
Kathryn Bigelow, THE HURT LOCKER
Quentin Tarantino, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Lee Daniels, PRECIOUS
Jason Reitman, UP IN THE AIR

No surprises once again. I think Lee Daniels is the odd man out in the group... sorry man. Jason Reitman now has two Best Director noms in his young career -- I don't think he'll win here, but it's only a matter of time. BASTERDS is my favorite Tarantino film ever, and I could see him pulling out a win. But I think this award is going to be a battle of the exes. Kathryn Bigelow has already won some major awards and THE HURT LOCKER deserves some recognition, so she may have the edge. (Plus, a woman has never won Best Director... and this is the same Academy that awarded Halle Berry AND Denzel Washington Oscars a few years ago when history was on the line... you see what I'm sayin'.) But if there's one thing I've learned, it's that you should never, ever bet against James Cameron. And besides, AVATAR was something that no other filmmaker could have fathomed in their wildest dreams... Cameron literally invented new technology and single-handedly changed the way movies can be made... so it would not be undeserved.

I'M ROOTING FOR: James Cameron
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Kathryn Bigelow


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
THE MESSENGER
A SERIOUS MAN
UP

Pixar always seems to find their way into the Screenplay category, and rightly so -- but I doubt UP will be the first to win, unless by some stroke of craziness, it pulls off a sweep. THE MESSENGER is a puzzling choice -- fine movie, interesting subject matter, but mostly unmemorable. I am THRILED THRILLED THRILLED that the Coens' devastatingly hilarious (or hilariously devastating?) story is being recognized, and it should absolutely win -- buuuut it won't. No, it'll come down to whether or not the Academy wants to award a gritty, realistic story about the current war... or an over-the-top, fictionalized story about a past one. Could go either way, but I'd put my money on the Nazi hunters over the bomb squad.

I'M ROOTING FOR: A Serious Man
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Inglourious Basterds


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
DISTRICT 9
AN EDUCATION
IN THE LOOP
PRECIOUS
UP IN THE AIR

Totally awesome that DISTRICT 9 got nominated, and that is ABSOLUTELY my choice! Most likely won't win, but it would be amazing if it did. IN THE LOOP is another great choice -- just watched that movie on DVD a few days ago and loved it. PRECIOUS was an excellent adaptation, but probably too much of a downer. I think it'll come down to AN EDUCATION and UP IN THE AIR... with the gold going to the latter, mainly because it is so damn timely.

I'M ROOTING FOR: District 9
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Up in the Air


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, INVICTUS
Woody Harrelson, THE MESSENGER
Christopher Plummer, THE LAST STATION
Stanley Tucci, THE LOVELY BONES
Christoph Waltz, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

First of all, Matt Damon's nomination is bullshit, as he was grossly miscast as a South African rugby player and more distracting than anything else. THE MESSENGER was an actor's film, and Woody was very good, but nah. Christopher Plummer was tremendous as Tolstoy in THE LAST STATION, and as with Mirren, you can't count out the golden oldies. I love that Stanley Tucci got recognized -- he was so creepy in the grossly underrated THE LOVELY BONES and would easily be my pick... if Christoph Waltz hadn't given the single greatest performance of the year as the diabolical Jew hunter in BASTERDS. This should be the biggest no-brainer of the night.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Christoph Waltz
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Christoph Waltz


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz, NINE
Vera Farmiga, UP IN THE AIR
Maggie Gyllenhaal, CRAZY HEART
Anna Kendrick, UP IN THE AIR
Mo'Nique, PRECIOUS

Pretty underwhelming list here. Penelope Cruz was the best (and hottest) part of NINE, but the movie was shite. Anna Kendrick was solid in UP IN THE AIR, and Vera Farmiga was even better -- not to mention arguably the single hottest on-screen presence of the year. I have never been a big fan of Maggie G. and her jowels. In the end, Mo'Nique is going to win this easily, and if they ever showed us the vote count, I bet it wouldn't even be close.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Mo'Nique
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Mo'Nique


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
James Horner, AVATAR
Alexandra Desplat, FANTASTIC MR. FOX
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, THE HURT LOCKER
Hans Zimmer, SHERLOCK HOLMES
Michael Giacchino, UP

I do not remember the scores for THE HURT LOCKER and SHERLOCK HOLMES, which obviously means that they were not very good. On the other hand, Desplat perfectly captured the offbeat Wes Anderson-ness of FANTASTIC MR. FOX, and James Horner's AVATAR score was appropriately epic. But the only one of these scores to actually get stuck in my head (not once, but twice) was UP... and I'm willing to bet that the Academy will agree.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Up
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Up


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Almost There," THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
"Down in New Orleans," THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
"Loin de Paname," PARIS 36
"Take It All," NINE
"The Weary Kind," CRAZY HEART

This is by far the most boring Best Song list in recent memory. Uhhh... well, I loved THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG and it had some very good songs, but damned if I can remember how they go right now. Forget about anything having to do with NINE (except for "Be Italian," which isn't eligible since it's not original). I've never seen PARIS 36... but it doesn't matter, because the song from CRAZY HEART is winning this. Incidentally, as much as I loved AVATAR, I am very glad that the crappy closing credits song didn't get nominated. Way to show some restraint, Academy!

I'M ROOTING FOR: "The Weary Kind"
WILL PROBABLY WIN: "The Weary Kind"


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
AVATAR
HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
THE WHITE RIBBON

First of all, can I just say that it is awesome that HARRY POTTER 6 got nominated here! Has an HP film ever gotten a major Oscar nomination? It was definitely the darkest and most interesting-looking installment, so I can't argue with it. I haven't seen THE WHITE RIBBON, so I cannot comment on that -- though I hope to rectify that soon. THE HURT LOCKER and INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS were both intricately shot.... but let's face it, no movie this year looked better than AVATAR, and I don't want to hear any crap about how it shouldn't count because of all the CGI.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Avatar
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Avatar


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
AVATAR
DISTRICT 9
STAR TREK

Man, wouldn't it be something if a movie with the relatively tiny budget pulled off an upset over two super-expensive behemoths? It'd be quite a story, and DISTRICT 9 definitely had some Oscar-worthy effects... but sorry, David... Goliath is going to win this round. There's no way AVATAR doesn't win this... and rightly so, seeing as how it was a milestone in the history of visual effects, following in the footsteps of such landmarks as STAR WARS, TERMINATOR 2 and JURASSIC PARK.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Avatar
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Avatar


BEST EDITING
AVATAR
DISTRICT 9
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
PRECIOUS

Tough call in this category, as pretty much every nominee has as good a shot as any other -- they are all superbly, and in some cases intricately, crafted. AVATAR may have been long as hell, but Cameron knows exactly what needs to be done to a movie to push people's buttons, and he succeeded once again, to the tune of $2 billion worldwide and counting. DISTRICT 9 is a fast-paced wonder, seamlessly shifting from documentary to narrative style. THE HURT LOCKER is wound tight and the tension can literally explode at any moment. BASTERDS manipulates not only visuals, but language to tell its story. And PRECIOUS's fantasies vs. her harsh realities are jarring indeed. In the end... I dunno... I'll be pulling for DISTRICT 9 just because, and I think BASTERDS will walk away with it. Or THE HURT LOCKER. Or AVATAR. (Probably not PRECIOUS, but then again, who knows?)

I'M ROOTING FOR: District 9
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Inglourious Basterds


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AJAMI (Israel)
EL SECRETO DE SUS OJOS (Argentina)
THE MILK OF SORROW (Peru)
UN PROPHETE (France)
THE WHITE RIBBON (Germany)

*sigh*... my uncultured ass hasn't seen any of these nominees. I hope to see THE WHITE RIBBON as soon as possible, and if any others are released between now and March 7th, I'll do what I can. But, um, RIBBON won the Golden Globe, so I'll go along with that for now.

I'M ROOTING FOR: The White Ribbon
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The White Ribbon


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BURMA VJ
THE COVE
FOOD, INC.
THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA
WHICH WAY HOME

Ooh, ooh, I actually saw two of these! FOOD, INC. was another disturbing doc about how we're all gonna die from E. coli poisoning... but frankly, it was kind of "meh." I have not seen BURMA, MOST DANGEROUS and WHICH WAY, but I am willing to bet that none of them are as good and riveting as THE COVE, an incredible story of a heroic group that attempts to stop Japanese poachers from killing poor, innocent dolphins. Seriously, it's awesome, and should win!

I'M ROOTING FOR: The Cove
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Cove


BEST ANIMATED FILM
CORALINE
FANTASTIC MR. FOX
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
THE SECRET OF KELLS
UP

Ummmmmmm... excuse me, but what in the holy hell is THE SECRET OF KELLS?!?!? Not only have I not seen this movie, but I've never even HEARD of it!!! Some research reveals that it's a hand-drawn Irish film set in the 9th century, from the makers of THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE. That was a great film... so who knows? Supposedly this movie will be released in March, but not sure if it'll be before or after the Oscars. This is by far the biggest shocker nominee of the whole shebang, so I can't wait to see it. As for the others... they all deserve to be there. THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG marked Disney's triumphant return to traditional animation, which makes me unspeakably happy. FANTASTIC MR. FOX revealed that stop-motion animation may actually be the ideal format for Wes Anderson -- it was a perfect marriage of filmmaking styles. CORALINE was very good and surprisingly dark. But I think this award belongs to UP, for two reasons: (1) It's really, really good and Pixar is a godlike entity, and (2) How can it NOT be the best animated movie if it IS one of the ten finalists for best movie of ANY kind? If it doesn't win this award, it would create some kind of crazy paradox that would tear a hole in the space-time continuum and destroy the universe... or, at least, make the Academy look like a bunch of doofuses.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Up (or Mr. Fox)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Up


BEST MAKEUP
IL DIVO
STAR TREK
THE YOUNG VICTORIA

Man, only three nominees, including one that I never heard of? Is this a sign of CGI being used more than traditional makeup these days? Perhaps. I'd never heard of IL DIVO before yesterday, but it's about Italy's prime minister between 1972 and 1992... so, um, I'm guessing they used aging technology? Boooo-ring! I remember the costume design THE YOUNG VICTORIA more than makeup, quite frankly. I think STAR TREK is the clear winner here... goddamn Spock's ears looked real!

I'M ROOTING FOR: Star Trek
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Star Trek


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BRIGHT STAR
COCO BEFORE CHANEL
THE IMAGINARUIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS
NINE
THE YOUNG VICTORIA

Another category with a nominee that I've never heard of... dammit, Academy, you're making me look bad! No matter, though... whatever BRIGHT STAR is, it probably doesn't stand a chance. DR. PARNASSUS was a flawed movie, but the costumes were as wild and crazy as the plot. THE YOUNG VICTORIA proves that if you make a British period piece, you are pretty much guaranteed a Best Costume nod. COCO BEFORE CHANEL looked good, which is to be expected, since that's pretty much what the movie is about. And while NINE was a bad movie, it DID feature Penelope Cruz, Marion Cotillard, Kate Hudson and Nicole Kidman in ridiculously hot outfits... and while it may not win, if that's not worth rooting for, I don't know what is.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Nine
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Parnassus, Coco or Victoria... flip a three-sided coin


I also look forward to seeing the Oscar-nominated Animated and Live Action Short Films as soon as they start showing them at the IFC Center in NYC, so I'll have some educated opinions about those, as well. Oscar Night is Sunday, March 7th, and you'd better believe that I will be right here providing my 5th ANNUAL MOMENT-BY-MOMENT OSCAR COMMENTARY! I assure you that it will be epic and informative and wildly entertaining... so be sure to follow along as you watch the big show. And feel free to share your thoughts. opinions & predictions on the nominees starting right.............................. NOW!