Ahh, my favorite time of year -- Oscar time! This year’s nominations have been revealed and they are an interesting mix of expected titles (LINCOLN, LES MISERABLES, ZERO DARK THIRTY) and surprises (LIFE OF PI, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, AMOUR), with refreshingly few head-scratchers. Granted, 2012 was such a great year for movies that the Academy would have really had to go out of their way to screw things up too badly. It should make for a very interesting and fun evening, come February 24th... but first, let's break down each category and try to make sense of it all. As always, I will include my predictions based on who I WANT to win and who I think WILL win. And the nominees are....
BEST PICTURE
AMOUR
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
I will say this: 2012 was probably the first year that justifies the decision to have more than five Best Picture candidates, because there were a LOT of worthy titles... many of which are represented here. I love that LES MIS (my #2) got a slew of nods across the board, and I also loved ARGO and ZERO DARK THIRTY, but I don't think any of them are major contenders. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK has a lot of buzz and momentum and is very lovable indeed. The Academy must've been in a philosophical mood when they honored LIFE OF PI all over the place -- great movie, beautiful visuals. DJANGO is the only nominee that would outright annoy me if it won -- it has its moments but is nothing special. I would have much preferred to see something like MOONRISE KINGDOM in that spot. The big shockers are the indie darling BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD and foreign gem AMOUR -- very awesome to see them here. Can’t imagine AMOUR winning, though BEASTS may have a shot if the Academy goes that route. That leaves my #1 movie of the year, and the leader with 12 overall nominations, LINCOLN, as frontrunner at this moment -- which would be fun, because my #1 movie hasn't won Best Picture since RETURN OF THE KING in 2004. Plus we’re due for Spielberg's everlasting genius to be re-recognized.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Lincoln
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Lincoln
BEST ACTOR
Denzel Washington, FLIGHT
Hugh Jackman, LES MISERABLES
Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN
Joaquin Phoenix, THE MASTER
Bradley Cooper, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
This category is kind of moot point, because there is no way in heaven, hell and all spaces in between that Daniel Day-Lewis doesn't win his unprecedented third Best Actor Oscar for his work in LINCOLN. The man is a god. But most of the rest of the crop isn't half bad. The exception is Denzel, who essentially played a caricature of himself in FLIGHT; his inclusion here is a joke and an insult to the actors whose places he stole, such as Jack Black (BERNIE) or Ben Affleck (ARGO) or, if the Academy was really daring, Denis Lavant (HOLY MOTORS). But it was nice of them to include the very deserving Joaquin Phoenix, despite his aversion to the whole award show scene. Jackman dominates the soaring LES MIS, and Cooper takes his a game to a new, unexpected level in SILVER LININGS, but again, there's no stopping DDL, the greatest actor of our time.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Daniel Day-Lewis
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
BEST ACTRESS
Emmanuelle Riva, AMOUR
Quvenzhané Wallis, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Naomi Watts, THE IMPOSSIBLE
Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY
First off, can all nations, religions and creeds please come together to celebrate the awesomeness that is Quvenzhané Wallis’ nomination?? Despite the fact that she was only six years old, she was a tiny powerhouse in BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, carrying the film like a seasoned veteran, and giving a performance that was both memorable and deeply affecting. There has been a stunning backlash against her performance, with some suggesting that she doesn't deserve the nod because she was too young to fully understand what she was doing. Frankly, that is bullshit. A great performance is a great performance, regardless of whether the actor/actress has fully honed his or her craft -- and after all, the award is called, “Best Performance by an Actress in a Lead Role.” All that being said, I don't think she will win (though if she does, I will smile my face off) -- Jessica Chastain was as good as it gets in ZERO DARK THIRTY and I think she has the edge -- but don't count out America's newest sweetheart, Jennifer Lawrence, who is now the youngest-ever two-time nominee. Naomi Watts was great in the otherwise forgettable THE IMPOSSIBLE, so I think she gets overshadowed here. Emanuelle Riva could be the dark horse for AMOUR -- her performance was as heart-wrenching as any in recent memory and it wouldn't surprise me if Oscar gives her a tear-stained trophy, especially if the Chastain & Lawrence cancel each other out. (Also, kudos to the Academy for not automatically nominating Marion Cotillard just because she played a woman with no legs in the otherwise-unmemorable RUST AND BONE.)
I’M ROOTING FOR: Wallis
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Chastain or Lawrence
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, ARGO
Christoph Waltz, DJANGO UNCHAINED
Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN
Philip Seymour Hoffman, THE MASTER
Robert De Niro, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Very happy that the Academy decided to honor THE MASTER in the acting categories, if nothing else, because the performances really are tremendous. Hoffman is brilliant as always, and would be an easy winner if not for Tommy Lee Jones, who does his best work in years and even manages to steal some scenes from DDL in LINCOLN. If they had to nominate someone from DJANGO, it should have been Samuel L. Jackson, whose villainous character stole the entire movie (though DiCaprio is always a viable option, too) -- Waltz is great, but his performance isn't too far removed from his work in INGLORIOUS BASTERDS. Along the same lines, Alan Arkin has once again been nominated for playing Alan Arkin -- which is hugely entertaining, but not necessarily Oscar-worthy anymore. (Would have really loved to see Matthew McConaughey get a nod here, since he had such a tremendous year with FOUR worthy performances -- KILLER JOE, in particular, but I would have accepted the more crowd-pleasing MAGIC MIKE. And I realize it’s too much to ask to recognize Mark Duplass just yet.) And then there's De Niro with his first nod in a while -- wouldn't be a huge shock if the Academy decided to honor him just because he's De Niro -- but in the end, I think Jones takes it.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Tommy Lee Jones
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Jones (or De Niro)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, LES MISERABLES
Sally Field, LINCOLN
Amy Adams, THE MASTER
Helen Hunt, THE SESSIONS
Jacki Weaver, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Pretty sure this category is another no-brainer, because Anne Hathaway's brief appearance in LES MIS has become the stuff of myth & legend -- particularly her soul-crushing rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream," which I believe to be the best individual scene of any movie last year. She captures Fantine’s downward spiral and despair more vividly than any stage version I’ve seen. Although, if LINCOLN is primed for a sweep, Sally Field could sneak in there -- it was a standout performance in a male-heavy film (plus, we really, really like her). I LOVE that Amy Adams got a nod because (a) I'm deeply in love with her, and (b) her work in THE MASTER was very much against type and further evidence of her greatness. Helen Hunt gives a fearless performance in THE SESSIONS, while Jacki Weaver was solid in SILVER LININGS -- though personally I would've liked to see Ann Dowd from COMPLIANCE (my #10 movie of the year and one that will likely gnaw away at my psyche for years to come) snag one of those spots.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Anne Hathaway
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Hathaway (unless LINCOLN sweeps everything)
BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke, AMOUR
Benh Zeitlin, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Ang Lee, LIFE OF PI
Steven Spielberg, LINCOLN
David O. Russell, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Some major shockers here. No Kathryn Bigelow (ZERO DARK THIRTY) or Ben Affleck (ARGO) or Tarantino (DJANGO) or Tom Hooper (LES MIS) -- instead, we get newcomer Benh Zeitlin for his transcendent film of wonder & hope... and Michael Haneke, whose AMOUR is as bleak and devastating as any major Oscar nominee in recent memory. Crazy. But awesome. Meanwhile, I'm not sure anybody could have pulled off LIFE OF PI quite like Ang Lee, so his nomination is well-deserved. Russell could win some crowd-pleaser points. But my guess is that the general bizarreness of this category opens the door for the Bearded One to win his first statue since 1999 -- hail Spielberg!
I’M ROOTING FOR: Spielberg
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Spielberg
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
AMOUR
DJANGO UNCHAINED
FLIGHT
MOONRISE KINGDOM
ZERO DARK THIRTY
So, so happy that my #3 movie of the year, MOONRISE KINGDOM, got some love here! Such a brilliant script on so many levels and one of Wes Anderson's best ever. I will be rooting for it hard. A little bummed, though, that Rian Johnson’s mind-bending LOOPER and Paul Thomas Anderson’s deep THE MASTER aren’t represented. DJANGO is Tarantino at his most self-indulgent; this is a sympathy nomination at best. FLIGHT, meanwhile, may be the biggest joke of the whole night, even more than Denzel's acting nod -- the film is a preachy, overly melodramatic exercise in pointlessness. ZERO DARK THIRTY is a taut & intense story with nary a wasted moment, but in the end, I think AMOUR's devastating tale of old age & unconditional love will have left enough of a lasting impression (read: scarred everybody for life) that it will win.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Moonrise Kingdom
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Amour
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Very, very sad that my #4 movie of the year, THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER (and author / screenwriter / director Steven Chbosky in particular), didn’t get some much-deserved praise here -- it is a wonderful film and a perfect adaptation. In light of that miscarriage of justice, I'll stick with the LINCOLN sweep. In many ways, Tony Kushner's amazing script is more vital than Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance -- a brilliant, multi-layered political procedural / character portrait. BUT! This could also be the category where the Academy decides to throw ARGO a bone -- and it wouldn't be undeserving, with its OCEAN'S 11-meets-MUNICH snappiness. BEASTS and LIFE OF PI are more a testament to their direction, whereas SILVER LININGS is all about the performances, so I think we can safely count them out.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Lincoln
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Lincoln (or Argo)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BRAVE
FRANKENWEENIE
PARANORMAN
THE PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS
WRECK-IT RALPH
Not gonna lie... I'm a little disappointed that they didn't scrounge up some random foreign animated fare to mix things up, like they did with THE SECRET OF KELLS in 2011 and CHICO & RITA and THE CAT IN PARIS last year. Fortunately, it was a very strong year for popular animation, so I guess such tactics were unnecessary. I'll be rooting for the ode to old-school video games, WRECK-IT RALPH, out of sheer nostalgia and Disney adoration -- but don't count out Pixar, especially if the Academy keeps an open mind and realizes that BRAVE is way better than the critical consensus. FRANKENWEENIE (also produced by Disney, FYI) was a return to form for Tim Burton, but PARANORMAN was easily the year's best kiddie-horror-cartoon and could eke out a win over the bigger money-makers. Aardman’s THE PIRATES! is hilarious but I doubt it has a chance, unless the two Disney films and the two horror films cancel each other out.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Wreck-It Ralph
WILL PROBABLY WIN: ParaNorman
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AMOUR (Austria)
KON-TIKI (Norway)
NO (Chile)
A ROYAL AFFAIR (Denmark)
WAR WITCH (Canada)
Sigh, I thought I did so well with the foreign films in 2012, but I've only seen one of these. Very surprised that the French phenomenon, THE INTOUCHABLES, isn’t here, not to mention the aforementioned (and overrated) RUST AND BONE. Fortunately, the one I did see is AMOUR, the likely winner -- and it kind of has to be, since it's also nominated for Best Picture. If it lost here, wouldn’t it create a paradox that could tear the very fabric of the time-space continuum and destroy the universe? (Probably.) I will do my damnedest to see the others before the big show (especially KON-TIKI because Norwegian cinema rules; also, damn, I regret not seeing A ROYAL AFFAIR when it was playing at the Paris theatre for like two months), but if any of them pose any threat to AMOUR's emotionally-crippling power, it will be something to see indeed.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Amour
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Amour
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
ANNA KARENINA
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SKYFALL
Roger Deakins, the legendary cinematographer who is perhaps best known for his work in the Coen Bros. universe (including FARGO, THE BIG LEBOWSKI, O BROTHER WHERE ART THOU?, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, A SERIOUS MAN and more), has been nominated for nine previous Oscars and has not yet won. I think it's probably time to change that. He gives SKYFALL a distinct western feel, which, infused with that classic Bond style, helps the film rise to another level. On the snub side, it’s shocking that THE MASTER isn’t here (guessing the Academy didn’t get to see it in glorious 70mm?), and I guess LES MIS’s visual style was too wacky (though it worked for me). Meanwhile, LIFE OF PI perfectly captures the dreamlike visual quality that was in my head as I read the book, while LINCOLN is shot in such a way that it manages to feel both epic and intimate. ANNA KARENINA is pretty to look at, and DJANGO UNCHAINED utilizes many spaghetti western visual tropes and things, but neither are deserving of a win. No, I think the 10th time will be the charm for Mr. Deakins.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Skyfall
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Skyfall
BEST EDITING
ARGO
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Historically, this is often the category that determines what will win Best Picture -- though that theory was thrown out the window last year when THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO won despite not even being nominated for the big prize, so who knows what'll happen this year. ZERO DARK THIRTY is the fastest-moving two-and-a-half-hour movie ever thanks to some tight editing, while ARGO is both snappy and intense. LIFE OF PI shifts seamlessly from one dreamlike-sequence to the next and wouldn’t be a bad choice. SILVER LININGS feels too conventional -- but the fact that it’s here at all could be a sign that the Academy is infatuated with its undeniable charm. In the end, I think the old prediction method will work, and LINCOLN wins.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Lincoln
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Lincoln
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
ANNA KARENINA
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
Hey, look, they changed the name from "Best Art Direction" for some reason. Go figure. Anyway, this is where I'm going to switch gears and stop rooting for LINCOLN and hope that LES MIS pulls out some aesthetic awards. Say what you want about the singing & bombastic nature of the storytelling, but you can't deny that the recreation of 19th century France is pretty outstanding. ANNA KARENINA is a contender because period pieces always are (and this one has a bit of a visual twist), while LIFE OF PI is a gorgeous-looking film in every way. THE HOBBIT looks great but is way more CGI-heavy than the LOTR trilogy, which probably hurts its chances. Would have been nice to see some recognition for Wes Anderson’s attention to visual detail in MOONRISE KINGDOM, but in the end, LINCOLN probably continues its sweep in these categories, and I cannot argue with that.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Les Mis
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Lincoln
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
ANNA KARENINA
LES MISERABLES
LINCOLN
MIRROR MIRROR
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN
Oooh, look, we've got ourselves a Snow White vs. Snow White smackdown! MIRROR MIRROR wins that battle in my book (and really, the less said about SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN, the better), but neither of them stand a chance here. If ANNA KARENINA is going to win anything, it will be this one, because Keira Knightley always looks so damn good in a corset. But I think I'll be rooting for LES MIS, with its 19th century Parisian griminess -- and expecting LINCOLN, with its many, many top hats and coats, to take home the gold.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Les Mis
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Lincoln
BEST MAKEUP
HITCHCOCK
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LES MISERABLES
When I saw CLOUD ATLAS, I thought it was an absolute lock for a Best Makeup nod, if nothing else -- for God's sake, some of the makeup work was so good that my audience actually applauded when the closing credits revealed which well-known actors played which unrecognizable characters! Too bad. Anthony Hopkins' transformation into HITCHCOCK was better than, say, DiCaprio's J. Edgar Hoover... but still closer to an SNL skit than an Oscar-winner. As much as I love LES MIS, I don't think the makeup work was so amazing -- if anything, they should've made Hugh Jackman look a bit older at the end (though they really did dress down Anne Hathaway, didn’t they?). Which leaves THE HOBBIT: There was some damn good dwarf and hobbit and creature makeup in there amidst the heavy CGI. It could win by default, and that's fine with me.
I’M ROOTING FOR: The Hobbit
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Hobbit?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
ANNA KARENINA
ARGO
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SKYFALL
Really, really surprised that BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD isn't nominated here, since that amazing score, along with Quvenzhané Wallis' performance, is what drives the film and makes it so memorable. A bunch of my other personal favorites (RUBY SPARKS, CLOUD ATLAS, THE MASTER) were also left out, and I honestly couldn't hum a single note of ANNA KARENINA, LIFE OF PI and SKYFALL (except for the classic Bond theme, of course) if someone put a gun to my head -- which leaves this category wide open for the great John Williams to potentially win his first Oscar since SCHINDLER'S LIST in 1994. That would be amazing! Plus LINCOLN has a damn good, understated, hummable score that represents the film nicely -- the old man's still got it.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Lincoln
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Lincoln
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Before My Time," CHASING ICE
"Pi's Lullaby," LIFE OF PI
"Suddenly," LES MISERABLES
"Skyfall," SKYFALL
"Everybody Needs A Best Friend," TED
Goddamn the Academy for making it necessary for me to watch TED, despite my disdain for Seth MacFarlane. (In fact, I watched it yesterday, and while it was not very funny, it WAS an effective ode to the 35-year-old male with arrested development who is also dealing with a breakup after four years... um, not that I know anyone like that.) I'm guessing Adele's SKYFALL theme will win this award, as it is the most well-known (and it’s quite good), especially since the new LES MIS song is not quite up to the quality of the existing material (though I still like it). Don't remember the PI song and haven't seen CHASING ICE (yet).
I’M ROOTING FOR: “Suddenly,” because, y'know, LES MIS
WILL PROBABLY WIN: “Skyfall”
BEST SOUND MIXING
ARGO
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SKYFALL
As I understand it, sound mixing refers to the way various layers of sound effects, dialogue, etc., of a film are blended together for our auditory pleasure. I think LES MIS is the likely winner because of the difficulty involved with having the actors sing live on set -- which, even if you don't like the film (damn haters), is undeniably an impressive achievement. SKYFALL and ARGO could be contenders because of the many elaborate action sequences and talk-fests, respectively. LINCOLN and LIFE OF PI, who knows. Surprised not to see more big action blockbusters here, like THE AVENGERS or THE DARK KNIGHT RISES -- though the latter was probably hurt because no one could understand what the fuck Bane was saying (and also, it’s not nearly as good as the fanboys would have you believe).
I’M ROOTING FOR: Les Mis
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Les Mis
BEST SOUND EDITING
ARGO
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LIFE OF PI
SKYFALL
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Sound editing, meanwhile, is related to sound design, the creation & selection of sound effects, etc. Again, no big blockbusters is surprising -- but again, the sound in both THE AVENGERS and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES were probably more LOUD than impressive, if you think about it. With that in mind, I think SKYFALL wins this one, or maybe LIFE OF PI, or maybe DJANGO steals one. Or ARGO or ZERO DARKY THIRTY. Who the hell knows.
I’M ROOTING FOR: Skyfall
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Take your pick
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LIFE OF PI
THE AVENGERS
PROMETHEUS
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN
Yay, THE AVENGERS is an Oscar-nominee! I hope they use the clip of Hulk smashing Loki around like a rag doll as the presentation clip. Fuck SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN. PROMETHEUS had some good-looking effects but probably not good enough (especially when subconsciously compared to ALIEN). THE HOBBIT actually features some of the best-looking CGI I’ve ever seen -- if any Academy members actually saw it in HFR / 48fps, it could push them over the edge. Otherwise, I think LIFE OF PI, with its dreamy visuals and truly remarkable (dare I say vital?) use of 3-D, will win this one.
I’M ROOTING FOR: The Hobbit (and The Avengers, just because)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Life of Pi
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
5 BROKEN CAMERAS
THE GATEKEEPERS
HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE
THE INVISIBLE WAR
SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
Again, I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't: I saw a bunch of excellent docs in 2012, but only two made the cut here. Come on, no WEST OF MEMPHIS, THE CENTRAL PARK FIVE, QUEEN OF VERSAILLES or JIRO DREAMS OF SUSHI?! Oh well. THE INVISIBLE WAR, which deals with the epidemic of rape in the military, is one of the most infuriating & upsetting & bleak docs I've ever seen -- absolutely essential viewing. However, HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE (about AIDS activism in the ‘80s), while also difficult & emotional, is a bit more on the hopeful side, which could sway voters. I have not seen the rest, but of course, will do so by any means necessary -- in particular, I hear SUGAR MAN is quite good.
I’M ROOTING FOR: The Invisible War
WILL PROBABLY WIN: How to Survive a Plague
You may notice that I left out the three Short Film categories -- that's because I haven't seen any of them yet, but I fully intend to do so as soon as they open at the IFC Center in a few weeks, and will review them all shortly thereafter... so stay tuned for that.
The most wonderful night of the year, Oscar Night, is Sunday, February 24th, and you can bet that I will be right here with my 8th ANNUAL LIVE MOMENT-BY-MOMENT OSCAR COMMENTARY! Such a great year for movies and such a strong crop of nominees means that I should be a mostly-happy camper throughout the show regardless of who wins... but then again, I DO hate this year's host, Seth MacFarlane, so that could add some vitriol to the proceedings. We shall see! In the meantime, who do YOU want to / think will win Oscar gold? Discuss!
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