Last-Minute Oscar Thoughts & Predictions

I usually write a big, long, in-depth overview of the Oscar nominees, along with my predictions from both the heart and the mind, and all sorts of pretty pictures and stuff -- but, well, I never got around to it this year. Sorry! But as I sit here thinking about the upcoming festivities on this wintry Oscars Eve, I decided to throw together a quick round-up. To my credit, I've seen EVERY nominee in EVERY category except for two! Here’s what I think...

BEST PICTURE
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE IMITATION GAME
SELMA
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
WHIPLASH

At this point, it's all about #TeamBoyhood vs. #TeamBirdman. BOYHOOD was my #1 movie of 2014, so needless to say, I am squarely in the corner of Richard Linklater's grand opus. (If it wins, it will be the first time my #1 movie of the year has won Best Picture since THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING in 2004, so this is kind of a big deal.) It also seemed like the foregone winner for the longest time. However, BIRDMAN has been on a hot streak lately and may have forged slightly ahead. Granted, it was also pretty great, so if it wins, I would be very disappointed and indignant but it wouldn’t be a tragedy. If the two somehow cancel each other out, it is conceivable that SELMA could steal the big prize to make up for its acting & directing snubs. Actually, I enjoyed pretty much all of these nominees on some level -- except for the vastly overhyped, sort of mind-boggling box office juggernaut, AMERICAN SNIPER. If by chance it swoops in and steals the big prize, you can be sure that my live-blog will be filled with drunken expletives. But no... that can’t happen... GO BOYHOOD!

I’M ROOTING FOR: Boyhood
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Birdman, if its recent hot streak is any indication... but fingers crossed....

BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, FOXCATCHER
Bradley Cooper, AMERICAN SNIPER
Benedict Cumberbatch, THE IMITATION GAME
Michael Keaton, BIRDMAN
Eddie Redmayne, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

Similarly, it's pretty much come down to Keaton vs. Redmayne here. It makes sense for Keaton to win, since his comeback is half of the appeal of BIRDMAN. But Redmayne has been winning awards all over the place and his performance as Stephen Hawking does transcend typical Oscar-bait. I suppose it's conceivable that Bradley Cooper (with his third consecutive Oscar nod, by the way... who would've guessed?) could steal it... but nah. Redmayne is the safe bet but hopefully the Academy will opt for the comeback story. (Still pissed about David Oyelowo's snub, though. Jake Gyllenhaal, too.)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Keaton
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Redmayne

BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT
Felicity Jones, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Julianne Moore, STILL ALICE
Rosamund Pike, GONE GIRL
Reese Witherspoon, WILD

No surprises here. This is Julianne Moore's award to lose, and rightly so. STILL ALICE is sort of a meh movie, but her performance is outstanding. Plus it's her fifth nomination and would, incredibly, be her first win. That being said, I loved Rosamund Pike in GONE GIRL, so if there is going to be a crazy upset, she is my pick.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Moore (and Pike)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Moore

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, THE JUDGE
Ethan Hawke, BOYHOOD
Edward Norton, BIRDMAN
Mark Ruffalo, FOXCATCHER
J.K. Simmons, WHIPLASH

Again, no surprises. J.K. Simmons wins easily and deservedly. (Also, for the record, THE JUDGE is one of the worst Oscar-nominated films I've ever seen. I know they need a requisite Old Timer nominee and Duvall is a legend, but jeez.)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Simmons
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Simmons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, BOYHOOD
Laura Dern, WILD
Keira Knightley, THE IMITATION GAME
Emma Stone, BIRDMAN
Meryl Streep, INTO THE WOODS

I love love love that Laura Dern got a nod here because she was the scene-stealing heart of WILD. Would've loved to see Uma Thurman get nominated for her unforgettable turn in NYMPHOMANIAC, but that was never going to happen. Patricia Arquette has been sweeping her way through awards season and Oscar night will be no exception -- she was indeed great in BOYHOOD and deserves the accolades.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Dern
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Arquette

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro González Iñárritu, BIRDMAN
Richard Linklater, BOYHOOD
Bennett Miller, FOXCATCHER
Wes Anderson, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Morten Tydlum, THE IMITATION GAME

Whether BOYHOOD wins Best Picture or not, I think Richard Linklater will win the gold here. The man is arguably the best American filmmaker working today and no one else could have made BOYHOOD happen, let alone made it work so miraculously. If anyone is gonna steal this award, though, it will be Iñárritu... but that would be a shame.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Linklater
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Linklater

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
FOXCATCHER
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
NIGHTCRAWLER

This is where I think the Academy will finally honor Wes Anderson -- it's his third screenplay nod and would be his first win and would make me very happy because GRAND BUDAPEST was my #2 movie of the year. Sharp, crazy NIGHTCRAWLER is a potential dark horse. And BIRDMAN could win the event of a clean sweep, but hopefully not.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Grand Budapest
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Grand Budapest

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN SNIPER
THE IMITATION GAME
INHERENT VICE
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
WHIPLASH

I think WHIPLASH is considered the favorite here, but I'm gonna put a stack of chips on Paul Thomas Anderson for adapting a seemingly-unadaptable book into a movie that may be flawed by his lofty standards, but is still batshit crazy and rich and fun. Not sure the Academy is so forward-thinking, but fortunately, WHIPLASH is pretty damn good, too. God forbid AMERICAN SNIPER pulls off a shocking upset.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Inherent Vice
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Whiplash

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BIG HERO 6
THE BOXTROLLS
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2
SONG OF THE SEA
THE TALE OF PRINCESS KAGUYA

A lot of people think THE LEGO MOVIE got snubbed here, but to them I ask: What the heck would you have left out? As fun as LEGO is, all of these movies are superior. HTTYD2 is the odds-on favorite, and one of the best animated sequels ever... and yet, it is still the least of this bunch of very strong nominees. Personally, I'd love to see Tomm Moore's wonderful SONG OF THE SEA (my #10 movie of the year) pull it out. And of course, I'm always rooting for Disney deep down.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Song of the Sea (or Big Hero 6)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: HTTYD2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
IDA
LEVIATHAN
TANGERINES
TIMBUKTU
WILD TALES

I've seen all of these -- a rare feat! They are all extremely solid. LEVIATHAN was my favorite for a while, with its vodka-soaked Russian dark sociopolitical satire. But I just saw Argentina's WILD TALES tonight and was blown away by its gleefully deranged satire, and I am now fully on its bandwagon. Meanwhile, TIMBUKTU is a brilliant, beautiful, heartbreaking miracle of a film and TANGERINES offers an interesting perspective on war... but Poland's powerful, exquisitely-shot IDA has been the generally-accepted favorite for a while and will likely win.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Wild Tales
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Ida

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BIRDMAN
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
IDA
MR. TURNER
UNBROKEN

BIRDMAN is almost certainly going to win here, thanks to its memorable long takes and bombast. Nice to see MR. TURNER included because it was a sumptuous visual experience. GRAND BUDAPEST looks great and has fun with aspect ratios and it all works. UNBROKEN will mark the umpteenth nomination and umpteenth loss for the great Roger Deakins... unless of course the Academy finally chooses to honor him for one of his more forgettable works... which, come to think of it, is exactly something they would do.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Grand Budapest
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Birdman

BEST EDITING
AMERICAN SNIPER
BOYHOOD
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE IMITATION GAME
WHIPLASH

I think WHIPLASH is going to win solely for its final, thrilling, maniacally-edited sequence. But, like, BOYHOOD is pieced together from 12 freaking years of footage! That's gotta be hard! Nah, it'll be WHIPLASH. (Side note: When was the last time a movie won Best Picture without earning an Editing nod? I’ll tell you when: ORDINARY PEOPLE In 1981! Major side-eye to BIRDMAN right now....)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Boyhood
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Whiplash

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
THE IMITATION GAME
INTERSTELLAR
INTO THE WOODS
MR. TURNER

All of these movies looked very nice indeed. But GRAND BUDAPEST looked like an intricately-packaged box of candy inside an intricately-designed doll house inside a bigger intricately-designed box of candy. Gotta give it to Wes Anderson's unparalleled eye for mise-en-scene here.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Budapest
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Budapest

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
INHERENT VICE
INTO THE WOODS
MALEFICENT
MR. TURNER

All of these are pretty good, too. The '70s vibe of INHERENT VICE is the most awesome and my personal fav. However, Ralph Fiennes' uniform in BUDAPEST already feels iconic, and the movie looks so good, it might just sweep through all the design awards. However, MR. TURNER does have the period piece thing going for it, and Angelina Jolie looked great as MALEFICENT, and INTO THE WOODS is fantastic all-around.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Inherent Vice
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Budapest

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
FOXCATCHER
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY

FOXCATCHER probably wins this because they made Steve Carell look like a big-nosed freak and the Academy eats pieces of shit like that for breakfast. But come on, gotta give GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY some love! We are Groot!

I’M ROOTING FOR: Guardians!
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Foxcatcher

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alexandre Desplat, THE IMITATION GAME
Hans Zimmer, INTERSTELLAR
Gary Yershon, MR. TURNER
Jóhann Jóhannsson, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

I love the BUDAPEST score so f’ing much and listen to it often, but my guess is that the two Desplat scores will cancel each other out (hate when that happens). Really wish UNDER THE SKIN would've gotten a nod because that shit is creepy. The buzz-o-meter and the Twitterverse and whatever else says that THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING will win, but I’ll be damned if I can hum a single note.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Budapest
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Theory of Everything

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Everything Is Awesome” from THE LEGO MOVIE
“Glory” from SELMA
“Grateful” from BEYOND THE LIGHTS
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from GLEN CAMPBELL: I’LL BE ME
“Lost Stars” from BEGIN AGAIN

“Glory” is going to win here, if for no other reason than to ensure that SELMA gets an Oscar. However, “Everything is Awesome” SHOULD win, to ensure that THE LEGO MOVIE gets an Oscar. (Tough call, I know.) I also like the BEGIN AGAIN song, though it was not the song I would've chosen from that movie. “Grateful” is a good song from a very good, underrated movie. The Glen Campbell movie is one of the two Oscar nominated films that I haven't seen, so I haven't heard that song... I suppose I could just listen to it on that thing called the internet, but that seems like cheating (I'm a weirdo).

I’M ROOTING FOR: “Everything is Awesome”
WILL PROBABLY WIN: “Glory”

BEST SOUND MIXING
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN
INTERSTELLAR
UNBROKEN
WHIPLASH

The sound mix was a huge part of what made WHIPLASH so effective, and I think it should win. But along the same lines, it also helped make the battle scenes in AMERICAN SNIPER so effective... and in the end, war wins over music because 'Murrica.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Whiplash
WILL PROBABLY WIN: American Sniper

BEST SOUND EDITING
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN
THE HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES
INTERSTELLAR
UNBROKEN

The safe money is on SNIPER here, too -- the guns are loud and shooty. But you know what? Fuck it, I'm going to root for THE HOBBIT one last time.

I’M ROOTING FOR: The Hobbit
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Sniper

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER
DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY
INTERSTELLAR
X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST

Visual effects is always a geeky category, but it seems extra geeky this year, which is pretty cool. I'll be rooting for GUARDIANS once again because I loved it, though INTERSTELLAR, for all its flaws, looked mighty good, too. However, I think DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES will win, because Jesus Christ, how is Caesar not an actual talking ape??

I’M ROOTING FOR: Guardians
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Apes

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
CITIZENFOUR
FINDING VIVIAN MAIER
LAST DAYS IN VIETNAM
VIRUNGA
THE SALT OF THE EARTH

THE SALT OF THE EARTH is the other nominee that I haven't seen... sadness. VIVIAN MAIER is a fascinating portrait and VIETNAM is interesting and informative. Didn't much care for VIRUNGA. Not that any of that matters because the intense and important CITIZENFOUR is a veritable lock, and rightly so.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Citizenfour
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Citizenfour

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1 (USA)
JOANNA (Poland)
WHITE EARTH (USA)
THE REAPER (Mexico)
OUR CURSE (Poland)

Okay, so, do you choose the one about the suicide hotline for military veterans... the one that serves as a dying mother's farewell to her young son... the one about kids aimlessly living in a desolate oil town... the one about how working in a slaughterhouse for 25 years has been sapping a man's will to live... or the one about the young couple and their baby who was born with a rare & incurable breathing disease? Personally, I choose a bullet to the head. Seriously, though, they're all bleak but very good. JOANNA is the best of the bunch, in my opinion, but CRISIS HOTLINE is the likely winner.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Joanna
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Crisis Hotline

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
PARVANEH (Switzerland)
BOOGALOO AND GRAHAM (UK)
AYA (Israel & France)
THE PHONE CALL (UK)
BUTTER LAMP (France & China)

The weakest collection of live-action shorts in recent memory... none of these are particularly great. BOOGALOO AND GRAHAM, the story of two precocious British kids and their pet chickens, is the funniest and most memorable by far. But AYA, the story of woman who pretends to be a man's driver after an encounter at the airport, has a mix of emotion and quirk that could take the gold.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Boogaloo and Graham
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Aya

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
ME AND MY MOULTON (Canada)
FEAST (USA)
THE BIGGER PICTURE (UK)
A SINGLE LIFE (Netherlands)
THE DAM KEEPER (USA)

I loved all of these!!! I wish they could all win and everyone should go find them online and watch them real quick. A SINGLE LIFE may be my fav -- it packs a lot of laughs and melancholy into a mere two minutes, and does more with the concept of time travel than most feature length films. I also enjoyed the quirky ME AND MY MOULTON very much. THE DAM KEEPER is the kind of lovely message film that makes Oscar cry... but in the end, I think Disney's FEAST will win, and I would not argue because it is a veritable feast of feels.

I’M ROOTING FOR: A Single Life (or Feast)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Feast

And there you have it. Mark your ballots accordingly and don't forget to cut me in for a slice of your Oscar pool winnings. We are now mere hours away from my 10th ANNUAL LIVE MOMENT-BY-MOMENT STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS OSCAR COMMENTARY -- yes, I've been doing this for a damn decade -- tomorrow night starting with the ABC pre-show and red carpet at 7:00 p.m. EST. Please do swing by and join the fun whether you are watching the big show or not. It’s gonna be fun AND informative! (Plus I’ll be drinking.)

‘Til later... GO BOYHOOD!