Oscar Picks and Predictions!

Okay, so the Oscar nominations have been announced, and I guess it's only fitting that they, like the year 2008 as a whole, are a mixed bag. I'm really happy about some (SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, yay)... disappointed about others (BENJAMIN BUTTON, ugh)... and downright shocked at a few (FROZEN RIVER, what?). I think a lot of the awards will be decided based upon the path the Academy decides to take: Will they go for the epic (BUTTON) or the feel-good movie (SLUMDOG), or will they choose to make a political statement (MILK)? I predict that one of those movies will sweep all or most of the major awards, but which one is anyone's guess. With that in mind, here are mine....

(NOTE: Since the nominations were announced this morning, I managed to watch HAPPY-GO-LUCKY and FROZEN RIVER -- both of which eluded me in theatres -- so I can now safely judge those films! God bless the internets!)

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

The only real surprise here is THE READER, which I thought was the lesser of the two Kate Winslet vehicles -- but it appears that REVOLUTIONARY ROAD has been snubbed almost across the board, which is a damn shame. FROST/NIXON was a testament to great acting, but it's nowhere near the best picture of the year. As I mentioned above, it's going to come down to BUTTON, SLUMDOG or MILK. Whichever one wins the most big awards earlier in the evening will be the favorite to win the big prize -- and my money is on Bollywood taking over Hollywood for one night!

I'M ROOTING FOR: Slumdog Millionaire
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Slumdog Millionaire


BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

The biggest surprise here is Richard Jenkins -- that is completely out of left field! I didn't see THE VISITOR, but I've heard good things about it -- and it is now at the top of my Netflix queue. However, I still think Frank Langella gave the year's all-around BEST performance... and you can't count out Sean Penn, especially in the event of a MILK sweep. But I think this is Mickey Rourke's award to lose, since he's got the whole "comeback" thing going for him... plus his performance was truly outstanding. Brad Pitt, meanwhile, is out of luck... well, except for the whole "having sex with Angelina Jolie on a regular basis" thing.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Mickey Rourke
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Mickey Rourke


BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Looks like the Academy was smart enough to realize that Kate Winslet was clearly the LEAD actress in THE READER... though on the downside, that realization probably cost her a second nomination for REVOLUTIONARY ROAD (in which, I think, she was even better). But that's okay... I have a feeling that this is her year and she will walk away with her first Oscar in six tries! She's got some serious competition, though -- Meryl Streep was astonishing (as always), and Anne Hathaway's accolades are well-deserved. On the other hand, Angelina's presence on this list is a joke... unless crying a lot counts for something, in which case she's a shoo-in. The big surprise, though, is Melissa Leo -- FROZEN RIVER flew completely under my radar last year, but I watched it tonight, and the movie and her performance are indeed gut-wrenching. (FYI, I also watched HAPPY-GO-LUCKY tonight and the fact that Sally Hawkins didn't get nominated is shocking -- amazing performance that I might have to write about in more detail later.) Anyway, this year, finally, it's all about my girl Kate!

I'M ROOTING FOR: Kate Winslet
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Kate Winslet


BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Seriously, seeing THE READER earn all these big nominations makes me wonder if maybe the Academy THOUGHT they were voting for REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, and the whole thing is a big mistake. Not that it's a bad movie by any means... but with the exception of Best Actress, it doesn't stand a chance against the big guns. Meanwhile, Ron Howard knows how to put together a gripping film, but FROST/NIXON's power was more a testament to its two lead performances. Again, it's going to come down to the three-way dance between BUTTON, SLUMDOG and MILK... and again, I think India will reign.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Danny Boyle
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Danny Boyle


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
WALL-E

SO FRIGGIN' AWESOME that WALL-E got nominated here -- this will be my most anticipated award of the night. I will be ecstatic if it wins, and I think it might actually have a chance! This category is crazy, though. Seriously, where the hell did FROZEN RIVER come from, and how did I miss it until tonight?? Nice to see HAPPY-GO-LUCKY get some love here, but it really should've gotten Best Actress instead. Also very cool that IN BRUGES was not overlooked -- it's funny as hell and a worthy dark horse. In the end, I think that MILK probably wins here, and that wouldn't be a bad thing... but WALL-E deserves it, dammit!

I'M ROOTING FOR: WALL-E
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Milk


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

This is a tough call -- it will likely be another prize fight between BUTTON and SLUMDOG, depending upon which one sweeps. BUT! I wouldn't be surprised to see either DOUBT or FROST/NIXON, both intricate, dialogue-driven character studies, sneak in and steal one. That said, SLUMDOG features the most enthralling story out of this bunch, and gets my vote once again.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Slumdog Millionaire
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Slumdog Millionaire


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

I'm glad to see Michael Shannon on this list -- he was a standout in a movie filled with memorable characters and performances. This is actually a very strong list: Hoffman was his usual great self. Brolin gave a complex, standout performance and was probably the best of the bunch. But I'm rooting for god-man Robert Downey Jr., whose blackfaced, super-Method Acting parody was nothing short of amazing, and the single funniest performance of the year. But we might as well face it... there's no way Ledger doesn't win, and I guess that's fine (even though I maintain that if he was still alive, he likely wouldn't even have gotten nominated). But what can ya do... I'm sure it'll be a nice Oscar moment, so I'll allow it.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Robert Downey Jr.
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Heath Ledger


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

I just don't get the Viola Davis thing... yes, she was good... she was on screen for all of FIVE MINUTES. I didn't think it was fair when Judi Dench won in '98 for ELIZABETH, and I don't think it's fair now. Meanwhile, Henson was good in BUTTON, but I can't give a major Oscar to that movie. I love Amy Adams and she held her own against Streep and Hoffman, but as cool as it'd be, I don't see it happening. How wild is it that Marisa Tomei is now a THREE-time Oscar nominee? I could see her pulling off a win here, much to George Costanza's delight. But I think Penelope Cruz's scene-stealing turn as Javier Bardem's crazy ex-wife earns her the gold!

I'M ROOTING FOR: Penelope, Amy or Marisa
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Penelope Cruz


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

I don't remember the scores from BUTTON or MILK at all, which means they were either unmemorable or subtly brilliant -- I'm guessing it's closer to the former. DEFIANCE had some good "Jews Kicking Ass" music (it's a legit sub-genre, trust me), and SLUMDOG was true to its Indian roots and will probably win. But I'm rooting for WALL-E, because the music perfectly captured the happiness, bittersweetness, sadness and overall wonderment of that vision of the future.

I'M ROOTING FOR: WALL-E
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Slumdog Millionaire


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire

When I saw these nominees, my first thought was, "Where the hell is Bruce Springsteen??" Well, I read somewhere that his song "The Wrestler" was ineligible because it appears on his own album and not solely on the movie soundtrack -- if that's true, it's the most retarded rule ever, since that song was specifically written for the movie at Mickey Rourke's personal request! But what can you do. Hopefully the two SLUMDOG songs will cancel each other out, and Peter Gabriel's lovely WALL-E tune will bring home the gold.

I'M ROOTING FOR: "Down to Earth"
WILL PROBABLY WIN: "Down to Earth"


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

You can immediately cross THE READER off the list, as we've discussed. I guess CHANGELING had a distinct noir-ish feel to it, but it was flat-out not a good movie, so it loses major points for that. I'm sure that this award, like many others, will come down to the BUTTON vs. SLUMDOG battle... and again, I choose SLUMDOG. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised to see THE DARK KNIGHT swoop in and steal one. Flawed as it was, it definitely featured some astonishing camera work, especially in IMAX.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Slumdog Millionaire
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Slumdog Millionaire


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Well, THE DARK KNIGHT had lots of good explosions and stuff... and IRON MAN flying around and wrecking shit was pretty f'ing sweet and my sentimental favorite... but I think BUTTON has to win here, because those were some of the best aging effectd I've ever seen. If only the movie as a whole could've been so impressive!

I'M ROOTING FOR: Iron Man
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BENJAMIN BUTTON should win the award for best LACK of editing, it was so damn long (hey, is this thing on?). THE DARK KNIGHT felt like part-superhero movie, part-noir-thriller, which was definitely cool. FROST/NIXON was a taut, dialogue- and facial-expression-driven drama. MILK was great, but I didn't see anything special about the editing, unless the Academy is particularly enamoured with flashbacks. Actually, I guess it is, because I think SLUMDOG wins this one, as it was edited in such a way that it felt both grandiose and intimate at the same time, which is no small feat.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Slumdog Millionaire
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Slumdog Millionaire


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

It's too bad that, due to another stupid Oscar rule, LET THE RIGHT ONE IN wasn't nominated, because that would've been my pick for sure. As it stands, my uncultured ass has only seen WALTZ WITH BASHIR, so that is my pick. Though I have heard good things about THE CLASS, so I will try to check that out soon.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Waltz with Bashir
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Waltz with Bashir


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Betrayal
Encounters At the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

Man, I really AM an uncultured buffoon... I have seen a grand total of NONE of these documentaries. But but but! MAN ON WIRE is available on Netflix's instant viewing, and and ENCOUNTERS will be arriving in my mailbox in a few days, so I'll be good to go. MAN ON WIRE seems to be the odds-on favorite (plus it has the whole Twin Towers thing going for it), so I'll vote for that.

I'M ROOTING FOR: Man on Wire
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Man on Wire


BEST ANIMATED FILM
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

I really liked KUNG FU PANDA... and BOLT was highly entertaining... but this might be the biggest no-brainer in Oscar history. In fact, it's borderline insulting to WALL-E's greatness to have to go up against such inferior competition. It's like Roger Federer mopping the floor with some unranked schlub in the first round of Wimbledon. WALL-E should really be playing with the big boys -- it's been 17 years since BEAUTY AND THE BEAST broke the barrier and earned a Best Picture nomination, and the time has come for it to happen again, especially now in the age of Pixar!

I'M ROOTING FOR: WALL-E
WILL PROBABLY WIN: WALL-E


BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Tough call here. BENJAMIN BUTTON featured some pretty extraordinary work. THE DARK KNIGHT might be the favorite simply because of the Joker's now-iconic makeup (however, it eally should lose points because Two-Face's fucked up face was a bit over-the-top). HELLBOY II... eh, the creatures were cool but ultimately forgettable. I guess I'm putting my money on ol' Ben B., but if the Joker wins, it wouldn't be a bad thing.

I'M ROOTING FOR: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Dark Knight


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Jeez, I realize that gay men have great fashion sense, but MILK's nomination here seems weird -- was it really that hard to go to the nearest thrift shop and get some vintage '70s attire? AUSTRALIA... meh... nothing memorable about that movie. THE DUCHESS wasn't a great movie, but you can never count out a period piece starring Keira Knightley -- she can wear a corset like nobody's business! BENJAMIN BUTTON may be overblown, but it definitely looked good and will likely win most of these artistic awards, if nothing else. But personally, I really liked the '50s suburban style of REVOLUTIONARY ROAD -- it was like something out of Father Knows Best, but, y'know, all fucked up and depressing!

I'M ROOTING FOR: Revolutionary Road
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


Okay, that's all for now. The big show is on Sunday, February 22nd, and I plan on being right here with MY ANNUAL MOMENT-BY-MOMENT RUNNING COMMENTARY! (Be sure to check in and read as you watch!) But in the meantime, I want to hear YOUR thoughts, picks, predictions, etc. Talk to me, people!