Oscar Thoughts & Predictions

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Yes, Oscar season is upon us and the nominations have been unleashed. All in all, I’m happy with the picks, though 2013 was such a strong year for movies, it would’ve been difficult to screw them up TOO badly. We have the usual mix of expected contenders (GRAVITY, AMERICAN HUSTLE, 12 YEARS A SLAVE), a few eyebrow-raisers (PHILOMENA? No Tom Hanks? No Pixar!) and the occasional selection that is completely out of left field (what the hell is Best Song nominee ALONE YET NOT ALONE?!). Should make for a good show and hopefully wash away the bad taste left by last year’s mostly dull, unfunny and uneventful Seth MacFarlane-hosted affair. Now let’s go through the list and see what’s what. As usual, I will include my predictions based on who I WANT to win and who I think WILL win. Good times. And the nominees are....

BEST PICTURE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
GRAVITY
HER
NEBRASKA
PHILOMENA
12 YEARS A SLAVE
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Well, the good news is that all of these movies are good and deserving of accolades! The bad news is that those accolades didn’t necessarily need to include Best Picture, especially when more deserving titles (ahem, INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS, my #2 movie of the year, unceremoniously snubbed in most major categories) have been left out. Movies like NEBRASKA, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB and PHILOMENA are all performance-driven and deserve their various acting nods, but stand little chance here. I loved THE WOLF OF WALL STREET but it may be too divisive for a good showing on Oscar night. GRAVITY (my #4 movie of the year) tied for the most nominations overall (10) and with its mix of critical and commercial acclaim, could very easily pull off a sweep. My heart is rooting for HER, my #3 of the year and a simply wonderful film. But in the end, I think it’s going to be a two-horse race between the serious & important (12 YEARS A SLAVE, my #8 of the year) and the fun lark (AMERICAN HUSTLE, which just missed my top 10). These two films have been splitting other award season top prizes (both won Best Picture in their respective categories at the Golden Globes; HUSTLE won the SAG ensemble; SLAVE won the PGA award, actually tying with GRAVITY) and might split categories throughout the night, but I think serious/important will take the top prize, and since it is a tremendous film, I cannot argue with that one bit.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Her (or Gravity)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: 12 Years a Slave

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Bruce Dern, NEBRASKA
Leonardo DiCaprio, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Matthew McConaughey, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Very sorry to not see Tom Hanks for CAPTAIN PHILLIPS here -- it was his best performance in years and his work in the last act was just astonishing. Joaquin Phoenix (HER) or Oscar Isaac (INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS) or Robert Redford (ALL IS LOST) would’ve been nice, too... but then again, I’m not sure whom I would’ve given the boot. Maybe Christian Bale, since AMERICAN HUSTLE, for all its acting prowess, was really owned by its ladies. Dern is good & crotchety in NEBRASKA and clearly scored the requisite oldster vote. Ejiofor is fantastic in 12 YEARS A SLAVE and has a definite shot. I’ll be rooting for DiCaprio to pick up his long-awaited first Oscar for arguably the best and most jaw-dropping performance of his career in WOLF OF WALL STREET. However, the Age of McConaughey has been running wild since 2012 and will likely culminate with Oscar gold for his tremendous work in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB -- especially if the Globes, SAG Awards and others are any indication.

I’M ROOTING FOR: DiCaprio
WILL PROBABLY WIN: McConaughey

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Cate Blanchett, BLUE JASMINE
Sandra Bullock, GRAVITY
Judi Dench, PHILOMENA
Meryl Streep, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

First of all, can you believe that Amy Adams now has FIVE Oscar nominations under her belt? That’s approaching Kate Winslet territory, but in less time. She rules and in any other year, she’d have a shot to win her first statue with her awesome work in AMERICAN HUSTLE, but probably not this year, because Cate Blanchett’s Streetcar-esque tour-de-force in BLUE JASMINE was the best performance back in May and is still the best now. Sandra Bullock commands the screen like she never has before (rocking the hot pants in zero-G, no less). Meryl Streep takes her Streepiness to another level in an otherwise “meh” dysfunctional family melodrama and Judi Dench is also great (and has awesome chemistry with Steve Coogan) as the titular Philomena -- but personally, I would replace both of them with Brie Larson (SHORT TERM 12) or Adele Exarchopoulos (BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR) or Greta Gerwig (FRANCES HA). Still, yes, a strong category indeed -- but this prize is Cate the Great’s to lose.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Blanchett
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Blanchett

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Bradley Cooper, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Michael Fassbender, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Jonah Hill, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Jared Leto, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

This category is funny if you picture CAPTAIN PHILLIPS’ Somali pirate Barkhad Abdi calling Tom Hanks on the phone and saying, “I’m the captain now!” Heh. An electric performance and a deserving nod. I like Bradley Cooper and David O. Russell really brings out the best in him -- though an argument could have also been made for Louis CK’s small but vital role. I cannot believe we live in world where Jonah Hill is a TWO-TIME Oscar nominee. For that matter, who would’ve thought Jordan Catalano would be nominated for an Oscar for playing a transgender AIDS patient? (Wonder what Angela Chase thinks about that.) I should mention that my fav supporting role of the year, Sam Rockwell in THE WAY, WAY BACK is nowhere to be found, but that was always a pipe dream; would’ve also been happy to see James Gandolfini get a posthumous nod for ENOUGH SAID. Anyway, lastly we have Fassbender giving us one of the most heinous depictions of real-life villainy in recent memory. He has been among the best in the business for several years now and could easily win. But I think Leto deserves it more.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Jared Leto
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Leto

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, BLUE JASMINE
Jennifer Lawrence, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Julia Roberts, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
June Squbb, NEBRASKA

Really would’ve liked to have seen Amy Adams pull double-duty and score a nod here for her amazing, adorable, understated work in HER. But alas. We can rule out Hawkins, though she is fine in BLUE JASMINE. June Squibb is the best part of NEBRASKA and I’m thrilled to see her here. I do think the Academy has something up their sleeve by nominating Julia Roberts (America’s past sweetheart) and Jennifer Lawrence (America’s current sweetheart) and pitting them against each other. J-Law is undoubtedly great, whereas Roberts is once again the weakest link of a solid ensemble cast, so it shouldn’t even be a contest. But it’s a moot point, anyway, because this award belongs to the lovely Lupita Nyong’o, whose work in 12 YEARS A SLAVE is just gut-wrenching. The Globes disagreed, but the SAG Awards got it right and the Oscars will, too.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Lupita Nyong’o
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Lupita

BEST DIRECTOR
David O. Russell, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Alfonso Cuaron, GRAVITY
Alexander Payne, NEBRASKA
Steve McQueen, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Martin Scorsese, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Gotta give credit where credit is due to Russell: The man can direct the hell out of great actors. I believe he is the first director whose films have scored nominations in all four acting categories two years in a row. That’s wild. So, sure, he deserves a nod himself and could win if HUSTLE sweeps. Alexander Payne is now 6-for-6 as a director of great films, but I would have gladly thrown him under the bus to give the Coen Bros. a nomination. Always a pleasure to see Scorsese get some love -- he brings an intensity to THE WOLF OF WALL STREET that instantly ranks it alongside his best. McQueen’s methodical hand helps 12 YEARS A SLAVE achieve a mix of brutality and humanity that is just incredible -- I think he will win (and let’s not overlook the fact that he would be the first black Best Director winner). But it could also go to Cuaron, whose precision filmmaking helped create one of the most awe-inspiring cinematic experiences of our time, and I’m not sure anyone else could have done it quite as effectively.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Cuaron (or Scorsese)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: McQueen (or Cuaron)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN HUSTLE
BLUE JASMINE
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
HER
NEBRASKA

So fucking disappointed that the Coen Bros. got snubbed for INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS -- maybe the Academy just didn’t get it. Hell, I’m not even sure I completely get it, but there’s no denying its multilayered greatness. The Coens simply work on another level. My guess is that AMERICAN HUSTLE will win this category and 12 YEARS A SLAVE will win for Adapted Screenplay, just to keep everybody on their toes. I’ve come to terms with it, even though I would be absolutely thrilled if HER picked up some gold for Spike Jonze’s brilliant, creative story that offers such a unique and subtly detailed vision of the future. Woody Allen won two years ago for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, but BLUE JASMINE is not as good as that movie -- still nice to see the Woodster rack up another nod. Rule out DALLAS BUYERS CLUB and NEBRASKA. I’d be legit surprised if HUSTLE doesn’t win -- but hey, it is a super fun flick.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Her
WILL PROBABLY WIN: American Hustle

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
PHILOMENA
12 YEARS A SLAVE
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

I’ll just come right out and say that if my #1 movie of the year, BEFORE MIDNIGHT, pulls off a miracle and wins this, my shrieks of orgasmic ecstasy will be heard from sea to shining sea. Unfortunately it has zero chance of winning. (Also, for the record, sequels are considered “adaptations” of their predecessors by the Academy, hence its inclusion here. Weird rule.) As mentioned, 12 YEARS A SLAVE likely has this in the bag and I cannot argue. THE WOLF OF WALL STREET is probably the closest contender but I don’t see it happening. And I guess CAPTAIN PHILLIPS and PHILOMENA are just there because they need five.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Before Midnight
WILL PROBABLY WIN: 12 Years a Slave

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
THE CROODS
DESPICABLE ME 2
ERNEST & CELESTINE
FROZEN
THE WIND RISES

Man... no Pixar makes me sad and feels unnatural. MONSTERS UNIVERSITY was pretty good and certainly more deserving than DESPICABLE ME 2 (damn Minions must have stuffed the ballot box). I actually really liked THE CROODS, one of DreamWorks’ better animated efforts. No idea what ERNEST & CELESTINE is all about -- that’s one of those random nominees that I must seek out between now and the big show. THE WIND RISES is wonderful and could score “legacy” votes for Miyazaki, since it is presumably his last film. But if FROZEN doesn’t win, it would be a damn shame -- it is a great film in every way and easily Disney’s best since the last Golden Age.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Frozen
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Frozen

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN (Belgium)
THE GREAT BEAUTY (Italy)
THE HUNT (Denmark)
THE MISSING PICTURE (Cambodia)
OMAR (Palestine)

At first, I was absolutely stunned by the absence of BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR until I remembered that it was not eligible and France submitted another film as its entry. Too bad, because it is amazing (and my #5 movie of the year). Unfortunately, my uncultured ass did not do very well in this category. I did see THE GREAT BEAUTY, which won the Golden Globe, and it is tremendous. THE HUNT is an unsettling/infuriating story driven by a great performance by Mads Mikkelson. Aaaaand that’s it. Will do my damnedest to see the others before March 2nd, but for now, I got nothin’ (though I have heard good things about BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN). I can say that BEAUTY and HUNT are the highest-profile titles so the safe bet is one of them.

I’M ROOTING FOR: The Great Beauty
WILL PROBABLY WIN: The Great Beauty or The Hunt

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE GRANDMASTER
GRAVITY
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
NEBRASKA
PRISONERS

Oh look, this must be the category where the Academy remembered that INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS is a movie that came out in 2013! (Jerks.) Well, it is definitely deserving -- the sad, grey tones perfectly capture the film’s downcast themes. No 12 YEARS A SLAVE nod is odd. Really annoyed at myself for missing THE GRANDMASTER in theatres because I remember thinking about it several times -- will rectify that as soon as possible. NEBRASKA is a lovely, black-and-white postcard of the dusty Midwest, while the great Roger Deakins adds his magic touch to the gritty, painful PRISONERS. However, GRAVITY freaking PUT US IN OUTER SPACE, not to mention Cuaron’s mastery of the long-take -- if enough Academy members actually saw it on the big screen (especially in IMAX 3D), it should be a no-brainer.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Gravity
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Gravity

BEST EDITING
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
GRAVITY
12 YEARS A SLAVE

Very surprised to not see Thelma Schoonmaker, Martin Scorsese’s trusted editor, here -- WOLF OF WALL STREET may be a three-hour portrait of excess and debauchery but it’s crafted in such a way that it just flies by. Paul Greengrass films are always super intense and CAPTAIN PHILLIPS is no exception. GRAVITY is a goddamn thrill ride and may be the favorite here (and throughout the technical categories) even if it is not destined to win the big prize. Great story and performances aside, there’s nothing special about the way DALLAS BUYERS CLUB is put together. HUSTLE and SLAVE could be favorites -- the former for its screwball stylings and the latter for its punishing epicness -- but you know what? I’d put my money on outerrrrrr spaaaaace.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Gravity
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
AMERICAN HUSTLE
GRAVITY
THE GREAT GATSBY
HER
12 YEARS A SLAVE

We’ve got five damn good-looking films here. (No HOBBIT or LLEWYN DAVIS, though? Boo.) I am thrilled to see HER recognized -- it is filled with splashes of color and whimsy and very specific details that make its vision of the future so vivid. It will likely take many viewings to completely soak it in. THE GREAT GATSBY features insanely intricate over-the-top eye candy, as Baz Luhrmann films always do, but I wonder if the Academy will think it’s TOO much (personally, I loved it). GRAVITY does a lot with the sparse vastness of space and the lonely confines of a shuttle. SLAVE and HUSTLE both intricately recreate their times & places in history. Tough category to call -- but my gut says SLAVE.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Her (or Gatsby)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: 12 Years a Slave

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
AMERICAN HUSTLE
THE GRANDMASTER
THE GREAT GATSBY
THE INVISIBLE WOMAN
12 YEARS A SLAVE

Again, I haven’t seen THE GRANDMASTER, so I can’t comment on that one -- but with nods here and in Cinematography, it must look mighty fine. GATSBY, again, features dazzling costumes that drip with glitz and glamour. THE INVISIBLE WOMAN is a good-looking Dickensian period piece and such films can never be counted out. 12 YEARS A SLAVE again pays tremendous attention to detail, but I think AMERICAN HUSTLE takes this one -- it may not have taken more than a visit to the nearest Salvation Army to recreate those ‘70s outfits, but damn are they memorable.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Hustle (or Gatsby)
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Hustle

BEST MAKEUP
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
JACKASS PRESENTS: BAD GRANDPA
THE LONE RANGER

Laugh all you want, but when I first saw the trailer for BAD GRANDPA, I didn’t even realize it was Johnny Knoxville. His old-age makeup is some of the best we’ve EVER seen -- certainly better than the awful work in films like J. EDGAR and HITCHCOCK and THE IRON LADY (some of which also scored Makeup nods, I believe). So, yes, it’s crazy to live in a world where a JACKASS movie is an Oscar nominee, but it is actually, legitimately deserving. However, I think DALLAS BUYERS CLUB will win here, especially if McConaughey’s dramatic weight loss is considered part of the makeup process. (In other news, fuck THE LONE RANGER.)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Bad Grandpa!!!
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
John Williams, THE BOOK THIEF
Steven Price, GRAVITY
William Buter & Owen Pallett, HER
Alexandre Desplat, PHILOMENA
Thomas Newman, SAVING MR. BANKS

Bummed that my favorite score of the year, BEFORE MIDNIGHT, didn’t make the cut -- though I guess I’m biased. No Hans Zimmer for 12 YEARS A SLAVE is legit surprising, but maybe the Academy also thought it sounded too much like INCEPTION (which it occasionally does). To be honest, while this was a great year for movies, it wasn’t a particularly memorable year for original scores for me. But there’s some good stuff here. I enjoyed Arcade Fire’s HER soundtrack and I’m not even an Arcade Fire fan. But it definitely fit that world. Desplat churns out good stuff year after year. Unfortunately for Thomas Newman, the most memorable music in SAVING MR. BANKS movie are obviously the MARY POPPINS numbers. John Williams’ work in THE BOOK THIEF is not among his greatest work but it would still give me unspeakable pleasure to see him win again  -- by God, it’s been a while. I’ll be rooting for him by default, but I think Steven Price’s appropriately epic GRAVITY score wins it.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Williams
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Price

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Alone Yet Not Alone,” ALONE YET NOT ALONE
“Happy,” DESPICABLE ME 2
“Let It Go,” FROZEN
“The Moon Song,” HER
“Ordinary Love,” MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM

Here’s the category where we have the biggest “WTF?!” nominee of the year. ALONE YET NOT ALONE is apparently a Christian movie that opened in super-limited release targeted towards its specific demographic last September. The trailer is, uh, interesting to say the least, and it probably doesn’t hurt that the song was written by an apparent former Academy Governor. Can’t believe I need to watch this crap to complete my goal of seeing every nominated film in every category; it’s a dirty job but somebody’s gotta do it. Meanwhile, if “Let It Go” from FROZEN doesn’t win this award, it would be an absolute travesty. Fucking U2 and “Ordinary Love” won the Globe but hopefully the Academy will have more sense. “The Moon Song” from HER is also lovely and would not make me sad if it won. And I couldn’t hum one note from the DESPICABLE ME 2 song if you put a gun to my head.

I’M ROOTING FOR: "Let It Go"
WILL PROBABLY WIN: “Let It Go” (unless the world has really gone utterly and irreversibly mad)

BEST SOUND MIXING
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
LONE SURVIVOR

Just for the record, since it’s always confusing (to me): Sound mixing refers to the way various layers of sound effects, dialogue, etc., of a film are blended together for our auditory pleasure. With that in mind, this is a very strong category. Happy to see the action-loaded THE HOBBIT get some love. LLEWYN DAVIS does great things with music to tell its story, but goddamn it deserved more accolades. LONE SURVIVOR is a contender for its epic battle sequence alone. The use of sound is a big part of CAPTAIN PHILLIPS’ intensity, but it’s an even bigger part of GRAVITY’s and I think the latter will win.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Gravity/Hobbit/Llewyn
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING
ALL IS LOST
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
LONE SURVIVOR

Sound editing, meanwhile, is related to sound design, the creation & selection of sound effects, etc. THE HOBBIT, LONE SURVIVOR and CAPTAIN PHILLIPS are all strong and I guess this is ALL IS LOST’s pity nomination -- though considering the film is mostly dialogue-free and relies heavily on visuals and sound (along with Redford’s grizzled screen presence) to tell its story, it would not be undeserving. But again, I think GRAVITY dominates this area and rightly so.

I’M ROOTING FOR: Gravity/Hobbit
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
GRAVITY
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
IRON MAN 3
THE LONE RANGER
STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS

People, THE LONE RANGER has the same number of Oscar nominations as INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS. That is just a travesty on so many levels. If any Academy members saw THE HOBBIT in HFR 3D, it could generate some votes -- in particular, Smaug is one of the best CG creations ever. IRON MAN 3 and STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS have some good effects, I guess, but nothing we haven’t seen before. GRAVITY, on the other hand, is a groundbreaking visual feast, mixing CGI and practical effects quite seamlessly if I’m not mistaken, and has this one in the bag. (The only film that could’ve maybe given it a run for its money, both in my heart and in reality, is PACIFIC RIM, but alas, no love for del Toro’s monsters vs. robots extravaganza.)

I’M ROOTING FOR: Gravity
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Gravity

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
THE ACT OF KILLING
CUTIE AND THE BOXER
DIRTY WARS
THE SQUARE
20 FEET FROM STARDOM

So, so sad that Sarah Polley’s phenomenal STORIES WE TELL (my #7 film of the year) did not make the cut here. Come on, Academy! Regardless, I did pretty well in this category for a change, having seen two of these on the big screen and two more on Netflix (20 FEET FROM STARDOM is the only one I must seek out). CUTIE AND THE BOXER is a lovely and whimsical and feel-good tale of two old Japanese artists. DIRTY WARS is quite an eye-opening look behind the U.S. military curtain that plays like a mystery novel. THE SQUARE offers a gripping, firsthand look at the Egyptian Revolution. THE ACT OF KILLING... God almighty... this film about Indonesian death squads must be seen and then can never be unseen. However, I think the Academy will go the feel-good route, as it did last year when SEARCHING FOR SUGARMAN beat out some much heavier material.

I’M ROOTING FOR: The Act of Killing
WILL PROBABLY WIN: Cutie and the Boxer

(Note that full reviews, picks and predictions for the Oscar-nominated live action, animated and documentary short films will be coming soon. They open at the IFC Center in NYC on Jan. 31st and as usual, I intend to see them all in one day-long marathon. Stay tuned for that!)

Oscar Night is Sunday, March 2nd, and as always, I will be right here with my 9th ANNUAL LIVE MOMENT-BY-MOMENT STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS OSCAR COMMENTARY. Please do swing by and join the fun whether you are watching the big show or not. In the meantime, any thoughts on this year’s noms, snubs and/or my predictions? Who do YOU want to / think will win Oscar gold? God, I love this time of year!